On the one hand, President Donald Trump has presided over a 1.3% increase in real average weekly earnings since the start of his second, nonconsecutive term. Median household incomes are up an average of nearly $3,000 in real terms. While inflation did indeed briefly spike in the aftermath of the Iran offensive, all signs indicate that the oil supply shock is limited as inflation abated last month.

On the other hand, Trump’s approval rating is trending perilously close to 40%. And every available poll indicates it’s the economy, stupid.