With gasoline at $4.40 a gallon, inflation rising, 30-year mortgage rates above 7%, and the Federal Reserve raising interest rates for the first time in three years, November’s elections are shaping up badly for Republicans. VoteHub, with its respectable methods and data, gives Democrats an 83% likelihood of winning the House and a 52% chance of taking the Senate.

Conservatives probably conceal their views almost as much from pollsters as they do from left-liberals in general conversation, who often talk in a way that indicates they can’t believe anyone would disagree with them, and will fight them if they do. So the blue party is probably not as far ahead as it appears on the surface.