A few House Republicans who play prominent roles on cybersecurity issues could lose their re-election bids, but most GOP cyber leaders who want to remain in Congress next year will likely do so. Those who are leaving key cyber posts are either retiring or term-limited out of their current chairmanships.
It doesn’t appear that many key incumbent House Republicans scheduled to remain in their committee leadership spots next year — either as chair or, if in the minority, as ranking member — are at risk of losing their seats.
Yet Democrats would love to take down House Intelligence Chairman Devin Nunes, R-Calif. He has been a central player in the controversy over investigations into Russian influence in the 2016 election, but the nonpartisan “Cook Political Report” and “Inside Politics with Nathan L. Gonzales” do not have him on the endangered list.
House Oversight and Government Reform information technology subcommittee Chairman Will Hurd, R-Texas, also a Homeland Security Committee member deeply involved in cyber issues, is in the “tilt” or “lean” Republican categories, according to the two nonpartisan analysts, in a Texas district that Democrats believe they can flip.
But a recent New York Times/Siena poll had Hurd up 51-43 percent over Democrat Gina Ortiz Jones.
On the other hand, Rep. Barbara Comstock, R-Va., who chairs the House Science research and technology subcommittee that often addresses cyber issues, is in a race that either “tilts” or “leans” toward Democrat Jennifer Wexton, according to Gonzales and Cook, respectively.
And the two nonpartisan analysts find House Small Business Chairman Steve Chabot, R-Ohio, who has worked on cyber issues during his term, leading Democrat Aftab Pureval in a close race. Chabot has aggressively raised the profile of cyber issues at his committee, with a focus on ensuring that the federal government’s tools and resources take into account the needs of smaller enterprises.
Other top players on cyber issues, such as Energy and Commerce Chairman Greg Walden, R-Ore., and Armed Services Chairman Mac Thornberry, R-Texas, are sailing to re-election and are expected to keep their positions as the top Republicans on those panels next year, either as chair or ranking member.
Walden has worked on cyber issues ranging from consumer breach notification and securing driverless cars to ensuring that the “Internet of Things” is cyber-secure.
Thornberry’s annual defense authorization bill addresses a wide spectrum of cyber issues, including shoring up the security of supply chains and writing a national cyber deterrence policy.
Still, independently of election results, other key positions will change hands next year.
House Homeland Security Chairman Michael McCaul, R-Texas, is term-limited out of that position after this year. McCaul has been the driving force behind bolstering the Department of Homeland Security’s cyber capabilities.
Other House chairmen are retiring, including Financial Services Chairman Jeb Hensarling, R-Texas, whose panel recently passed consumer breach-notice legislation; Foreign Affairs Chairman Ed Royce, R-Calif., who has pushed cyber deterrence and diplomacy bills; and Science Chairman Lamar Smith, R-Texas, who has been active on a variety of cyber issues, including efforts to remove Kaspersky products from federal computer systems.
Polling and independent analyses suggest Democrats have a better chance of winning the House than the Senate in November, but both are in play.
In the Senate, the most prominent players on cyber issues to face serious challenges are both Democrats: Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Ranking Member Claire McCaskill, D-Mo., and Commerce Ranking Member Bill Nelson, D-Fla. Cook and Gonzales both rate the two races as “toss-ups.”
Polling and race ratings can change significantly in the lead-up to election day on Nov. 6, so all of these analyses are subject to change.
