Rick Santorum was the likely favorite to win the Volunteer State’s Super Tuesday primary last month, but it will no longer be the decisive victory he had hoped for. Recent polls in the state show former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney closing the 18 point lead Santorum had just two weeks ago and show Santorum leading Romney by a mere four to five points. One poll even has Romney leading Santorum by one. Considering the commanding lead Santorum had in Tennessee last month, this is alarming news for the Santorum campaign.
Despite Santorum’s early momentum, Romney hasn’t written the state off entirely. Tennessee governor Bill Haslam has endorsed his candidacy and has been campaigning with Gov. Tim Pawlenty, one of Romney’s top surrogates. Romney also took a day off from campaigning in Ohio this week to make a stop in Knoxville on Sunday for a rally at West Hills Elementary School, showing he that he is more invested in the state than he was previously.
Santorum also campaigned in Tennessee on Sunday, stopping by Corky’s BBQ in Memphis to court voters and eat pulled pork and ribs.
Newt Gingrich has spent the most time campaigning in the state – he even brought Herman Cain to the state with him – and spent significant time in Tennessee yesterday, yet he still remains an afterthought in the polls. Meanwhile, Ron Paul has yet to show up at all.
Though Santorum still has the edge, his earlier momentum has slowed, leaving Romney to nip at his ankles in the Volunteer State.
Tennessee is one of the more important states on Super Tuesday due to its sheer number of delegates. At 58, only Georgia and Ohio have more. Delegates will be apportioned according to congressional districts. The winner of each congressional district earns 3 delegates.
The remaining 28 delegates will be awarded based on the final statewide results. The higher the percentage a candidate earns statewide, the more delegates he earn. If the current poll numbers translate to actual results, there is a good chance Romney and Santorum will split Tennessee’s 58 votes delegates.
