The contested convention: A topic you are probably hearing more and more about in the news, although you may not know exactly what it means. As seen on the popular television series “The West Wing,” and more recently, the latest edition to Netflix’s “House of Cards,” contested conventions offer great material for political drama.
In the sixth season of the “The West Wing,” underdog Congressman Matt Santos refused to step down in the contested Democratic primary race, despite facing pressure to do what was best for the party. Santos, of course ends up winning the nomination, and later the presidency. But, the real-life 2016 race for president is arguably just as entertaining as the ones that were made for TV.
History tells us that the chances of a contested convention actually happening are slim; the last time we even came close to one was back in 1976. However, as key winner-take-all primaries approach, and Marco Rubio and John Kasich fight to win in their home states, the possibility of a contested GOP convention is cropping up in the media and among party leaders with more regularity, and an increasing tone of seriousness.
Especially, among establishment Republicans and the #NeverTrump crowd, a contested convention is starting to look like the only scenario in which Trump loses the nomination.
If Cruz, Rubio and Kasich are able to prevent Trump from earning a majority — or a total of 1,237 delegates — by the time the Republican National Committee holds its nominating convention in July, convention delegates will continue to vote until one candidate receives the required amount of delegates to secure the nomination. Although current rules require candidates to have won a majority of delegates in at least eight states, the rules can be changed, and may change given the Republican Party’s determination to nominate someone other than Donald Trump.
As things currently stand, Trump has secured 458 delegates, Cruz has 359, Rubio has 151, and Kasich trails with 54.
Rubio and Kasich both have a chance to perform well on March 15. Florida has 99 delegates up for grabs, and Ohio has 66.
Although current polling has Trump leading in Florida and Ohio, both Rubio and Kasich have said they are confident they will win their home states, and both have also expressed confidence in a contested convention.
”Listen, when I win Ohio, and we’re doing better in other northern states as well … this thing is gonna go to the convention,” Kasich recently said.
“If you look at it now, even Donald Trump is going to have a tough time at this point getting the 1,237 delegates,” Rubio said. “I think this will all eventually work out and there will be a consolidation behind someone not named Donald Trump, and I’m telling you, that is going to be me.”
[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXoLaMhx-zI]
