Presidential candidate Rick Santorum may be putting a hold on the cheers of inevitability coming from Mitt Romney’s campaign after Saturday’s primary in Louisiana. One of the last deep south states left to vote this cycle, Louisiana is prime stomping grounds for a guy like Santorum and the polls are showing it.
The most recent PPP poll of the Pelican State has Santorum with a commanding lead of 14 points, while the Real Clear Politics average sits in the former Pennsylvania Senator’s favor at almost 11 percent. The best recent poll for Romney in Louisiana still had Santorum up by 4 and took place at the beginning of March.
Don’t expect Mitt Romney to go down too easily, however. The Fix notes 5 different reasons why Mitt may surprise us: a large Catholic populations (a problem for Santorum, even though he is one himself), Newt hoarding some votes, the momentum in Mitt’s favor after winning in Illinois, the prominence of suburbs in Louisiana compared to other southern states, and the fact that Romney did well in Mississippi in counties along the Louisiana border.
That could all add up to an upset.
There are 46 delegates up for grabs in Louisiana, with 20 going proportionally to the candidates who break 25 percent. The remaining 26 are elected from a state convention and are uncommitted when they go to Tampa later this year.
A surprise win in Mitt Romney’s favor could potentially seal the deal for his campaign, solidifying his inevitable nominee-apparent status. For the first time, Romney could say he’s won in all regions of the country including the south. A win for Santorum would keep him viable in the coming weeks, giving him new life while the general waning mathematical outlook of the race remains unchanged.
