Puerto Rico is perhaps one of the easiest predictions to make this month.
Mitt Romney will almost certainly win Puerto Rico GOP presidential primary tomorrow. He has the backing of the state’s Republican Governor, Luis G. Fortuno (a good vice presidential pick if he came from any other state), and only Newt Gingrich has the slightest chance of upsetting him, given that he is the only other candidate to drop hints he’d favor statehood for Puerto Rico, a measure supported by Republicans in the territory.
And with Rick Santorum’s blunder earlier in the week in Puerto Rico when he told Puerto Ricans they needed to make English their official language if they wanted to become a state, it is unlikely he will prevail there.
Newt is busy trying to hold onto his home turf in the South, whereas Romney has had the ability to concentrate on what he calls “away games.” His wins in areas like Guam and in American Samoa will also help to propel him forward as a good candidate for another United States territory.
But because Puerto Rico isn’t a state and will have precisely zero say in who the next President of the United States is, this isn’t likely to be a big primary, and it won’t bolster Romney’s argument for his own electability nearly as much as it would for a different candidate who doesn’t rely so disproportionately on establishment support and friendly media markets.
If Romney wins, we’re back to square one, with another round of media focus on the inevitability of Romney’s candidacy. If Gingrich wins Puerto Rico, the entire chessboard will have been knocked over.
