UPDATE: Sky News projects “Leave” wins with more than 50 percent of the vote.
What’s this all about?
Britain has always had a particular relationship with the EU. The UK joined in 1973, but never transitioned to the Euro or signed on to the Schengen Agreement — which abolished the border controls between member states — for example, why you can drive from Estonia all the way to Portugal and never need to show a passport at any national border.
None of the EU’s independent member states have ever left. When Prime Minister David Cameron ran for reelection last year, he campaigned on the promise that he would revisit Britain’s involvement in the EU.
What’s the case for “Remain”?
Access to the European Common Market. The EU lowered barriers to trade and was pitched as a freer market for all Europeans…until the EU government in Brussels started regulating it. More on that later.
The “Remain” campaign has centered on jobs. The EU allows UK citizens to work abroad with minimal visa requirements.
There’s also the enormously popular Erasmus Programme, which allows students in EU member states to study abroad and intern in other member states without any of the usual visa hurdles. At the most recent count, over 15,000 British students were taking part in the Erasmus Programme; the country hosts over 27,000 Erasmus students from other member states.
It is no wonder that young people overwhelmingly favor “Remain.” In fact, only 33% were planning to vote “Leave.”
But will young people turn out?
Young people could swing the vote to “Remain” — it’s all a matter of showing up. According to CNBC, 1.5 million people under the age of 25 aren’t registered to vote. Another 2 million voters between 25 and 35 aren’t registered, either.
…and the case for “Leave”?
It’s all about the money. The UK sends 350 million pounds to the EU every week. The “Leave” campaigners say that their country isn’t getting a good return on that investment — in fact, they’re getting tons of new rules and regulations that they didn’t ask for.
There are two big ones here — rules, and immigration. The EU loves making rules about trade, leading many to question if the EU Common Market really promotes free enterprise.
The EU also wants the UK to accept more migrants, and give those migrants more benefits. Brexit fans want the UK to have total control over who they let into their country, and what benefits those people receive.
Who’s on what side?
Prime Minister David Cameron wants in. London Mayor and hair icon Boris Johnson wants out.
President Obama is on the record asking Brits to remain in the EU. The British royals have taken no official position (though at least one British tabloid has circulated a rumor otherwise). But Liz Hurley, who plays the Queen on “The Royals,” wants out. Keira Knightley and Benedict Cumberbatch want in.
So, what happens next?
If they remain, not much. If they leave, things get interesting. Britain would have to re-negotiate its current trade deals with the EU countries. That’s going to take a while, and there’s no guarantee that the UK would be able to have the same access to trade and jobs that they currently enjoy. But! The regulations go away, and the UK gets more authority in determining its own policy towards migrants.
The idea of leaving the EU is contagious. The majority of Italian and French voters now want their own countries to hold a referendum on membership. Sweden is likely to hold a referendum if the Brexit comes to pass. (Italeave? Swexit? These events won’t nickname themselves, people!)
This is only the beginning of the political fight between Euroskeptics and Europhiles. Results are expected early Friday morning in the UK, which is the late evening here in the States.
