The GOP nomination could take a decisive turn in the next week and a half. Michigan and Arizona voters will cast their ballots on Feb. 28, which could be the Gettysburg of the long battle for the Republican nomination.
Here’s why:
1) Michigan could swing for Mitt Romney or Rick Santorum. The state’s Republican electorate is currently trending toward the former Pennsylvania Senator, according to recent polling data, but the two are in a statistical dead heat. Romney has natural advantages in the state where his father, George Romney, served as Governor, including positive name ID. Romney’s decision to publicly oppose the 2008 auto bailouts that primarily affected Michigan, however, has given Santorum an opening in the state that would have otherwise went for Romney.
Because the state is volatile, it could show a bellwether indication of whether or not the GOP has decided to pick a new frontrunner in Santorum, or if Romney will remind voters he will inevitability be the one to go head to head with President Obama this fall.
If Santorum wins in Michigan, it could be the “knock-out punch” that Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann, Texas Governor Rick Perry, Herman Cain and Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich couldn’t land against a front-runner who has not generated strong support from the party base. Romney losing a state like Michigan, where he has home field advantage, would dictate media coverage only a week before Super Tuesday, when 10 states will cast their votes. If Romney wins Michigan, it could hold back the last candidate to mount a challenge as the “conservative alternative” until Romney’s inevitability claim becomes fact.
2) Michigan is potentially in play for the GOP in the general election. President Obama has not been popular in the hard-hit economy. The state was swept by Republicans in 2010, and there’s an opening for a senate pick-up in the fall that could help shift the state into the GOP column nationally. The strength of the GOP showing in the primary could be a gauge of how fired up the Republican base is ahead of the general election. It will also be an indicator of how problematic Romney’s anti-bailout position will prove to be in the swing state should he win the Republican nomination.
3) The white, working-class voters of the Midwest will decide if President Obama will receive a second term. Obama’s policies have driven this “Reagan Democrat” demographic toward the GOP in the last four years, but this group also gave Obama his 2008 victory in states like Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Iowa and North Carolina. If the GOP can win this demographic, the Republican presidential candidate will win.
