Will 2012 be 1980 or 1996? Well, the answer could lie in whether or not Republicans can win back the culturally conservative yet fiscally liberal Reagan Democrats.
The GOP has failed to crack 200 electoral votes with its last three presidential nominees who were perceived as uninspiring moderates (namely George H.W. Bush in 1992, Bob Dole in 1996 and John McCain in 2008), losing states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Florida.
Ronald Reagan’s 1980 landslide against Jimmy Carter was partly fueled by his appeal among these voters because he made them feel that he understood them and by enunciating a positive vision.
Last fall, Reagan campaign handler Craig Shirley told me that the late president beat Jimmy Carter because he connected with those Democrats on their terms.
According to pollsters Scott Rasmussen and John Zogby, this block of Catholic voters is THE swing bloc for the 2012 election.
Both told me personally that their tracking polls show the blue-collar Reagan Democrats are dissatisfied with Barack Obama this year and that they could be winnable.
And conservative activist Grover Norquist predicted the following in an e-mail he sent me:
“Gasoline prices, the decline in the number of jobs in America since Obama took over are reasons to vote for any Republican over Obama. Reagan Democrats in 1980 were also reacting against Jimmy Carter’s attacks on Christian Radio stations through the FCC and on Christian schools through the IRS…this mirrors Obama’s attacks on the Roman Catholic Church and its hospitals and charities.
“The Reagan Democrats will vote against Obama as they voted against Carter.”
If Mitt Romney or any other GOP presidential candidate wants to beat Barack Obama in November they must at least win Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, or Pennsylvania. Looking at the electoral math as it stands now the GOP nominee CANNOT win in November by sweeping the South and western states while losing in the Rust Belt.
If that scenario were to play out, Obama would pickup 281 electoral votes to the GOP challenger’s 257 electoral votes.
But in order for Norquist’s predictions to come through, the Republican nominee must put forward a plan to revitalize American industry in the Rust Belt and to borrow the cliché that worked for Bill Clinton – “feel [their] pain” – and mean it.
In my 2001 Crisis Magazine article on “Why Blue-Collar Catholics Don’t Vote Republican,” I encountered the perception among blue-collar Catholic voters that “Republicans are too materialistic [and] too fascinated with economic policy.”
As they say, perception is reality and emotions sell rather than facts and figures.
The GOP nominee needs to do the following among others:
· Show how Obama’s policies have hurt working families and how union bosses hurt their interests;
· Enunciate a workable, positive vision for blue-collar families;
· Connect with their difficulties and create an emotional connection.
· Devise policies that will encourage economic investment and grow jobs in the manufacturing sector.
