For all there is to celebrate about Bernie Sanders engagement with young voters, there’s also a harsh reality: Young people don’t vote. Older voters do, and it may be why Hillary Clinton is still winning despite getting killed with younger demographics.
John Stoehr, contributor for U.S. News World Report, claims that “Bernie’s Revolution Has No Future” and dismisses arguments that Sanders is bringing about the future of the Democratic Party. For one thing, the party is already becoming more liberal.
“At best, claiming he represents the party’s future is like a consolation prize. At worst, it feeds into the already entrenched notion among Democrats that all they need to do in order to win is wait for demographics to change the electorate,” Stoehr writes.
He also notes that the exit poll excitement and readings are “misleading.” While there may be some “notable upticks” in voting, primary results are still low among young people. Millennials make up the largest demographic, but have had the lowest voter turnouts for 2012 and 2014, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
Exit poll data may also overstate young voter significance while understanding it for older voters, according to a 2007 study comparing exit polling data to state voting records.
The numbers don’t even fare well for young people in 2008, when they turned out in droves for Barack Obama. Even the Obama campaign reached more elderly voters than young people, reaching only 23 for every 100 young people. While minority voters increased their turnout, the percentage of young whites voting only rose 2 percent.
“Sanders warned audiences throughout the 2016 primary that without a massive turnout of young voters, he can’t beat Clinton’s enormous built-in advantages,” Stoehr notes. While Sanders had a strong national lead with young people with 76 percent to 23 percent, Hillary enjoyed the support of older voters by 65 percent to 29 percent.
The point may be contributing to the increasing likelihood that Hillary will become the Democratic nominee. She may not be doing well with young people now, a point Sanders has noted throughout the primary.
And yet Hillary may still win the presidency and even the youth vote, should she go up against Donald Trump in the general election. With such unflattering choices for millennials, the 2016 voting trends will be noteworthy and perhaps disappointing.
