How can I possibly assert such a thing if election-prediction savant Nate Silver of The New York Times currently gives Obama a 66 percent chance of winning? Well, Silver has a fancy-shmancy mysterious data machine full of yummy variables.
I’m applying common sense.
Less than four months until the election, the Real Clear Politics average of all national surveys has Obama at 46.2 percent, vs. 45 percent for Mitt Romney.
That’s not a good number for an incumbent. If there is one politician in America everybody knows and has heard and has an opinion of, it’s the president, Barack Obama. The general rule of thumb for someone seeking re-election is that he is in some trouble if he’s under 50 percent.
Granted, the RCP average had George W. Bush at 42.7 percent at this point in 2004 and he went on to win. So why is 2012 different?
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