President Obama may not think weed should be a priority for young people, but could it become one in 2016?
Marijuana legalization organizations, like the Marijuana Policy Project, are hoping for a number of new states to legalize in 2016. Currently they’re working on voter initiatives in Arizona, California, Maine and Nevada. A presidential election means more young people will be at the voting booth–“That only bodes positive for the initiative,” a Drug Policy Alliance spokesperson told TIME, referring to Arizona’s legalization movement.
But marijuana initiatives may also boost overall youth turnout. A study last year from Tufts University’s Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement found that states with “hot-button” ballot initiatives, like marijuana legalization, saw higher youth turnout in the midterms. In Florida, where a marijuana initiative narrowly failed to pass, young people made up 14 percent of the electorate–compared to just 8 percent in 2010.
“It could have major, major impacts. Point No. 1 is, marijuana definitely increases [voter] participation of young people,” Democratic consultant and pollster Celinda Lakea told The Hill. “The other nice thing about marijuana is that there’s no backlash. It doesn’t motivate [opponents] to vote — so it’s a unilaterally net positive effect.”
“It’s a total win for Democrats,” she said. “Opinions are shifting very rapidly, but in most of the states it’s running, it’s testing high 50s, low 60s. Democrats would be lucky to be in high 50s, low 60s.”
Another Democratic strategist was less optimistic. “I don’t want to be a buzzkill, but I just don’t see it happening in the next year or so,” said Jim Manley. “I haven’t seen a demand other than from young people.”
Marijuana is increasingly popular among all demographics. A recent Pew poll found that, across every age group, support for legalization has increased steadily since 2005. And while only 38 percent of Republicans from the Boomer generation want legal weed, 6 in 10 millennial Republicans favor marijuana legalization.
According to centrist group Third Way, the majority of Americans—including 54 percent of Republicans—also support, at the very least, granting medical marijuana states a safe haven from the federal prohibition on the drug. 68 percent of Republicans support legalizing medical marijuana.
So far none of the likely 2016 candidates have embraced legalization, but Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) has introduced legislation that would reform harsh federal marijuana laws, and has lashed out at Jeb Bush’s “hypocrisy” on pot. Bush has admitted to smoking weed regularly in his school days, but now opposes even medical marijuana laws.
“You would think he’d have a little more understanding then,” Paul said. “I think that’s the real hypocrisy, is that people on our side, which include a lot of people who made mistakes growing up, admit their mistakes but now still want to put people in jail for that.”
