Youth turnout in the March 15 primaries broke 2008 records, according to a report from the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement (CIRCLE).
Florida saw the most substantial increase; nearly twice as many 18- to 29-year-olds voted in Tuesday’s primary compared to 2008. Illinois and North Carolina also saw significant increases in youth participation, while Missouri saw a modest increase, and Ohio was the only state that saw a slight decrease in youth participation this year.
When the data is split up by party affiliation, the number of young Democrats who voted in Florida and Illinois increased since 2008, but participation decreased in Missouri, North Carolina, and Ohio. Young Republican turnout, on the other hand, has increased significantly in every state.
“In every state for which we have data, more youth than ever cast ballots in the Republican primaries,” CIRCLE reported. “The increase was very large in all cases; the number of young Republican primary voters surpassed previous records by at least 45,000 in Missouri and by over 113,000 in Ohio over the previous record.”
Despite the fact that these young voters tend to lean toward candidates other than the two front-runners, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton continue to win in most states.
CIRCLE director Kei Kawashima-Ginsberg said that unlike 2008 and 2012 when young voters were able to swing the election in favor of Barack Obama, there is not yet a decisive choice for youth in this election cycle, especially for young Republicans.
Currently, Trump is getting support from between 30-40 percent of young Republican voters, while the remaining youth are divided between other candidates.
Kawashima-Ginsberg said young voters are “more reluctant to support Trump,” compared with older groups, but “not necessarily against him either.”
Trump does win the youth vote in some states — although he wins by much smaller margins with youth than he does with older people.
Young Democrats have had a better shot at affecting primary results because they are largely united behind one candidate: Bernie Sanders. We can clearly see the impact of young voters in Democratic primary races like Michigan, where voters under 30 showed up in record numbers, and 81 percent of them supported Sanders.
However, until the majority of young Republicans are able to unify behind a candidate that is not Donald Trump, young people will continue to have a high turnout rate, without having a significant impact on the results.
