Surprise, surprise: Hillary Clinton’s millennial problem is getting worse. The Democratic presidential nominee has seen a big dip in poll numbers among the 18-to-34 age group recently, both nationwide and in key swing states.
A Quinnipiac poll released last week shows Clinton capturing 31 percent of the millennial vote, with just a 5-point lead over Republican nominee, Donald Trump. That’s a drastic plunge from last month, when she was capturing 48 percent of their support, with a 24-point lead over Trump. She’s also down 2 percentage points from August in a Fox News national poll, which shows her winning over 37 percent of young Americans, compared to her 39 percent in August.
In Ohio, a CBS/YouGov poll found that Clinton has dropped from 57 percent to 51 percent among millennials. Meanwhile, in Michigan, she’s gone from 44 percent to 35 percent, taking her 24-lead over Trump down to just a 7-point lead.
“I need you,” Clinton told Temple University students during a campaign stop in Pennsylvania yesterday. “Not voting is not an option,” she said. “That just plays into Trump’s hands. It really does.”
Her sinking numbers should be a big concern for the Democratic Party. Millennials make up such a large part of the Democrats voter base that they’ve come to rely on this age group to help them win elections. In fact, in 2012, Barack Obama won 60 percent of the under-30 vote to Mitt Romney’s 37 percent.
“So where is Clinton’s millennial vote going?” asked NBC’s Dante Chinni. “It depends on the poll you examine. Some of it is going to Trump and some to the undecided or ‘other’ categories. But third-party candidates seem to be playing an outsized role in 2016.”
The same Quinnipiac poll mentioned earlier has Libertarian candidate, Gary Johnson, making big strides among millennials, having nearly doubled his support from 16 percent in August to 29 percent in September. Even the Green Party’s Jill Stein saw a small increase from 11 percent to 15 percent. These third-party numbers are significantly higher than in 2012, when Johnson and Stein together garnered less than 3 percent of the youth vote.
Ironically, the Commission on Presidential Debates has chosen to exclude millennial favorite, Johnson, from participating in the first presidential debate, despite his having the support of nearly one-third of millennials. Stein, who is also earning an unexpected portion of youth support, will not be allowed to participate either.
Assuming that the Commission decides to silence the millennial generation by keeping Johnson and Stein out of the remaining two debates, it’s possible that Clinton might win some of these young supporters back. It’s also possible, however, that the youth turnout will be lower than in previous elections, as a good chunk of millennials do not seem to be thrilled with either major party option.
