Political lawn signs are like advertising: on the margin, they might persuade a few voters.
A new study found a small bump — an increase voter share by 1.7 percentage points on average — for a candidate after randomized field experiments tried to measure whether lawn sign increases could boost a political candidate, according to Politico.
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“It appears that signs typically have a modest effect … an effect that is probably greater than zero but unlikely to be large enough to alter the outcome,” the researchers wrote.
The effect is similar to voters seeing advertisements, mail, or receiving phone calls. For someone who isn’t following an election, and doesn’t have much information about candidates, recognizing a name might be enough to sway them when voters go to the voting booth.
The researchers ran four field experiments, so the finding isn’t definitive. It goes against the idea, however, that yard signs signal loyalties that only boost voters who already support the candidate. For that accepted wisdom to change, more research would be needed.
A struggling candidate who does a campaign blitz to push lawn signs and advertisement probably won’t get a boost in vote totals. For a race that’s at a statistical tie on election day, however, they could generate some needed support.
Low-information voters would be the targeted demographic. Strong supporters of a different candidate aren’t going to change their vote because their choice lost the lawn-sign arms race. A voter who sees voting as a duty, regardless of their knowledge of the candidates, though, could trust a neighbor’s sign instead of a coin flip.
