A presumptive general election between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton could give the Libertarian Party its best showing in decades, led by a former western governor or a cybersecurity pioneer.
Democrats and Republicans who have found themselves politically homeless in 2016, however, have been reluctant to look toward the LP, even though they talk about the need for a third party.
Former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson and tech entrepreneur John McAfee, most famous for his anti-virus software, have become the leading candidates for the LP nomination, but either will face a struggle to gain momentum in the general election. The unfavorability ratings of Trump and Clinton are historically high, but third parties face legal hurdles and a lack of reach among voters.
“The L.P. has, in the months since Trump started dominating the GOP race, seen some progress, though it is progress from a place where percentages seem much more impressive than raw numbers,” Brian Doherty wrote for Reason.
Libertarian Party membership has surged, but it remains paltry. Johnson, the LP nominee in 2012, received more than 1 million votes — 1.2 percent of the popular vote. The popular insurgency it needs seems to be in the realm of the fantastic.
However, a March poll from Monmouth University found that Johnson could garner 11 percent support in a Trump/Clinton general election. Were Johnson to get into a nationally televised debate with the two, he believes he could present a viable alternative.
“Talk about setting the table for the Libertarian nominee – this is it,” Johnson told the BBC, reflecting on the 2016 race.
The LP wants to attract voters who haven’t considered them before, feeding off the surge of support Ron Paul had as a Republican candidate that he couldn’t get as a Libertarian presidential candidate in 1988.
“We, in our very bones, are all Libertarians. If you consider this, even briefly, you will see the value of liberty in all things,” John McAfee wrote.
If voters break from the Democrats and Republicans, they might overlook the LP too.
“There are millions of rank-and-file voters who are dismayed by Trump’s hijacking of the party and many thousands, surely, who will not be able to bring themselves to check that box in November. Maybe we will stay home; maybe we will vote Libertarian; maybe someone will prevail upon Mitt Romney to ride in on his unicorn under a third party’s banner,” Rachael Larimore wrote in Slate.
Larimore is a rarity: she explicitly mentioned the Libertarian Party. “It is time for a third candidate, and probably for a third party,” former Bush administration official Eliot A. Cohen wrote in The Washington Post. He somehow ignored the LP, though it’s the closest to the vision he outlined. In National Review, David French suggested the LP if it “gets its act together” to “nominate a truly serious candidate,” meaning they should desert libertarian ideology for a Marco Rubio type of conservative. Given John McAfee’s background and opinions, it’s difficult to see conservative policy makers uniting behind him.
“There are dumpster fires in my town more popular than these two ‘leaders,’” Republican Senator Ben Sasse wrote in a Facebook post criticizing Trump and Clinton. Rumors have swirled that Sasse could be the politician for an independent run. Sasse, however, rejected the idea in March. “Absolutely not,” he said, before Trump was the productive nominee.
A Johnson-Sasse LP ticket has the possibility to forge a “fusionist” ticket; the LP keeps its base satisfied, and Sasse could prove conservative enough to appeal to disillusioned Republicans and some Democrats. Though it’s a stretch, Johnson has won Republican voters before. The LP could have a golden opportunity in 2016.
