The biggest story of Tuesday night is Rick Santorum winning both Alabama and Mississippi. Polls leading up to the Alabama primary showed it would be a tight race between Santorum, Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich, although Gingrich was a slight favorite. Santorum’s wins were not necessarily a huge shock, but an upset all the same.
Santorum took 34.5 percent of the Alabama vote, leading Newt Gingrich at 29.3 percent and Mitt Romney at 29 percent.
The surprise came when Santorum garnered 32.9 percent of the vote in Mississippi, beating heavy favorite Gingrich by 1.6 percent. This effectively dealt the deathblow to the already miniscule chance Newt Gingrich had to make a run at being the conservative alternate to Mitt Romney…again.
Santorum has justifiably vowed to fight on. Gingrich also promised to stay in the race until the Republican National Convention in Tampa. Even before the polls closed yesterday, Gingrich’s campaign sent out an ‘internal memo’ detailing Newt’s path to victory even if he lost the evening’s southern primaries.
At this point, and this is purely speculation, it is likely Gingrich is going to receive intense pressure from his allies that its time to leave the race, and he will eventually drop out before Louisiana’s primary.
It would surprise me if Santorum’s camp hasn’t already reached out to him. Peter Hamby from CNN reported via twitter Tuesday night that a Gingrich adviser floated him the idea of a Santorum-Gingrich ticket.
Even if Santorum and Gingrich teamed up, in terms of delegate math, it isn’t likely Santorum will be able to outpace Governor Romney and clinch the nomination.
To get the nomination, Santorum would have to win 50 percent of the remaining contests. With the proportionality of the remaining March primaries and Romney having passed many of his weakest states, mainly in the South, it’s unlikely this will happen.
What is possible is Santorum winning enough delegates to keep Romney from receiving enough to become the nominee outright, forcing a contested convention. Realistically, this is likely what the Santorum campaign is aiming for.
If Gingrich were to drop out now, his current 140 delegates would be up for grabs after the first round of voting, providing a shred of hope for Santorum at the convention.
Although Romney came out of Tuesday night with slightly more delegates than Santorum due to wins in Hawaii and the American Samoa Islands, the former Senator of Pennsylvania was able to do something in Mississippi that Romney has yet to do this primary season: he won where he wasn’t expected to.
Wins like this yield momentum and it will likely lead to a Santorum win in Louisiana. Then, it will be a continued plod to a convention where Romney’s long talked about inevitability will finally be realized.
