Republicans had the opportunity to take back the White House in 2016.
I say that without any ideological tilt towards a party or candidate, but because it is the truth. With history as a guide, it is clear that Republicans had (and wasted) the advantages granted to them in this year’s election.
In modern presidential history, it has become increasingly difficult for any single party to win more than two consecutive elections (not counting incumbencies). In fact, the last time this has happened was in 1929 when Herbert Hoover was elected.
It is still unlikely for a party to win the White House two elections in a row (with different candidates each time). The last time that happened was in 1989 with the election of George H.W. Bush.
This is not to say that Republicans would have been handed an easy victory in 2016, but precedent did lend advantage to the GOP.
In addition to these facts, the Democratic Party’s front-runner (and now presumptive nominee) is one of the least popular political figures in modern history. According to the Real Clear Politics polling average, Hillary Clinton has an average unfavorable rating of 55.5 percent.
This rating makes Clinton the single most disliked presidential candidate put forth by the Democratic Party in modern history, according to data from the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research.
Of course, there is also the public’s distrust of Clinton. A Washington Post-ABC News poll revealed that only 37 percent of people, Republican or Democrat, see Clinton as a trustworthy candidate.
This figure should come as no surprise. In her decades as a public figure Clinton has been plagued by scandals, from Whitewater to the Clinton Foundation to her private email server.
To put it simply, Clinton is an inherently flawed candidate. The fact that she was the strongest player in the Democratic Party’s political line up is simply another indicator of how 2016 should have been the GOP’s year to shine.
As such, one could think that the Republican Party’s next move would be to highlight Clinton’s flaws by putting up a trustworthy, thoroughly vetted, likeable candidate. Yet, somehow they ended up getting caught in the divisive crosshairs of their own party’s mechanisms.
Internal power and policy struggles between mainstream conservatives and fringe groups meant that there was no clear front-runner for the party. As such, the GOP “establishment” did not solidify behind one candidate until it was too late, and the party put forth Donald Trump.
Whether you support him or not, Donald Trump is the only candidate with unfavorability ratings higher than Clinton. As of late April, the Roper Center reported that over 50 percent viewed him as “strongly unfavorable,” making him the single most disliked candidate to ever win a modern presidential primary.
Tie these numerical facts in with his divisive rhetoric, and it becomes clear that the Republican Party blocked its own shot in 2016.
So what can we do now?
Most importantly, we can learn from these mistakes. Millennials in particular, who are less ideological compared with their older counterparts, can take 2016 as a learning experience, and either four or eight years from now they can use these lessons to drive the primary in a different direction.
The days of infighting need to end. We must stop damaging our candidates beyond repair in our primaries. We must not fear the establishment, but see it as a viable tool for weeding out populists or other candidates who seek to take advantage of the Republican Party’s brand. We must focus on our similarities and not our differences.
There will always be differing levels of ideological tilt in any party. However, the younger generation in particular must take the message of unification that party leaders like Paul Ryan have been purporting and use our similarities to guide us to victory, rather than letting our pride be our demise.
