For all the talk of Bernie Sanders and his “political revolution,” some younger voters are excited, but Democratic voter turnout is down.
The enthusiasm for Sanders has been promoted by his campaign, but, as The Washington Post noted, turnout fell by 15 percent in New Hampshire compared with 2008. The youth overwhelmingly chose Sanders there, where 83 percent of voters under 30 preferred him over Hillary Clinton.
Sanders might have some devoted supporters, but he has not energized the Democratic Party, nor have young voters voted in the droves he needs to defeat Clinton. While Clinton has fretted about her lack of appeal among young voters, it might become a minor issue. The greater issue will be to boost Democratic voting numbers for the November general election.
Indeed, as The Post noted, national polls from CBS and The New York Times, and Suffolk University and USA Today, found slightly higher enthusiastic support among Clinton supporters than Sanders supporters.
The popular narrative, in its rush to explain the rise of Bernie Sanders and his appeal, has obscured the reality of the Democratic race. Sanders’ success has been impressive, and hints at 2016 as the year of the anti-establishment candidates, but part of his success rests in a Democratic aversion to Hillary and a lack of alternative, viable candidates to oppose her. While Democratic voting has been close, Sanders has only bested her in New Hampshire.
“Sanders will need his base of support to turn out heavily … But in Iowa at least, they didn’t,” Phillip Bump wrote for The Post.
Nor did they come out in Nevada. Democratic voting in the Nevada caucus, by the estimate of the Nevada Democratic Party, fell by 33 percent compared with 2008.
Unless Sanders can grow his base, or turn them out in droves, a Clinton upset is more difficult than it already looks. If he fails, then Clinton will have to grow the base, or encourage more Democrats to vote, if the trends in Iowa and Nevada are the trends of the country.
