Messengers heralding the GOP as a party of the “Solid South” haven’t examined the data.
Today, the party identification of the majority of Southern states are either competitive or only lean Republican, according to part of Gallup’s “State of the States” survey released earlier this month. Only two states of the “Solid South,” Tennessee and Alabama, are defined by Gallop as “Solid Republican.”
Instead, the Republican stronghold region in the country is the Mid- and North West.
Since Gallop began reporting on state party identification seven years ago, Wyoming and Utah have been the two most Republican states each year, with Idaho ranking third in all but two years. Seventeen different states have appeared in the Republican top 10 over time. Kansas and Nebraska have ranked in the top 10 every year. Montana, Alabama, North Dakota and Alaska have been in the top 10 all but one year.
Indeed, although 65 percent of Mitt Romney’s electoral votes came from the Southern region, the Republican leadership positions in the House are held by representatives outside the South -– from Ohio and California. By contrast, in the mid-1990s, almost the entire Republican congressional leadership was Southern.
But states that rank the most Democratic have remained largely consistent, and unlike the strongest Republican areas, the strongest Democratic regions are not surprising. Nine states have ranked in the top 10 most Democratic every year, including Massachusetts, Maryland, Rhode Island, New York, Vermont, California, Hawaii, Delaware and Illinois. The solidly Democratic states plant their stakes in New England and the Mid-Atlantic, but also include California and Illinois.
Since 2008, Gallup reports, there has been a significant movement away from self-identifying as a Democrat at both at the national level and in many states.
Today, Republicans hold 31 governorships, 35 state senates, and 33 state houses. 23 states are Republican trifectas, where the GOP holds the governorship, and a controlling majority in both the state house and state senate. After the 2014 midterm elections, the Democratic Party held seven trifectas, as compared to their 13 before the election.
Democrats still maintain a modest advantage in national party affiliation, partly because they have an advantage in some of the most populated states, like California, New York and Illinois, according to Gallup. At the same time, the populous states of Florida and Texas are competitive, with Florida slightly leaning Democratic and Texas slightly leaning Republican.
But if this Gallup study tells us anything, it is that party affiliation is a shifting beast and party leaders should not get too comfortable in any region.
