Republicans may be having a tough time winning the presidency, but GOP Senate candidates made significant improvements during the last few weeks, and many races that seemed locked up for Democrats are now competitive.
Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wisc.) was considered a dead duck by most experts just a few weeks ago, but has benefitted from a huge surge in recent polls and early voting in some Democratic strongholds. Regions in Wisconsin that were sound Democratic territory have been significantly underperforming.
Michael McDonald tweeted late last week that the heavily Democratic corner of southwest Wisconsin was having much lower levels of early voting than in 2012. Just a few days later, the lack of enthusiasm for former Sen. Russ Feingold starting showing in the polls.
This week IA & NC geographic analyses:
-Dem weakness in eastern IA could be in SW Wisconsin, too
-NC Rep weakness acute in large counties— Michael McDonald (@ElectProject) October 10, 2016
Johnson has been trailing Feingold by double digits for most of the race, but a Loras University poll released on Thursday showed the Republican Senator has a five-point lead over Feingold. A second poll by CBS/YouGov confirmed that the once safe win for Democrats was now in play, Feingold led Johnson by only three percent, which is well within the margin of error.
Todd Young is another Republican seeing momentum. Young, who is running in Indiana against the former Sen. Evan Bayh, was leading on his name recognition and well-financed campaign, but now has endangered the Democrats’ chances in the state after a scandal broke.
A story by the Indy Star found that Bayh had barely been to the state of Indiana since retiring from the Senate, and the narrative was further substantiated when he couldn’t remember where he lived during a local TV interview. The gaffe cost the Democrats, and a poll from WTHR found that the race was in a dead heat.
Incumbent Republicans like Kelly Ayotte (N.H.) and Pat Toomey (Penn.) have also seen an improvement in the polls, with the New Hampshire Senator leading in four of the last five polls according to Real Clear Politics. Likewise, Toomey has pulled into a slight lead after weeks of falling behind his Democratic challenger.
Real Clear Politics reported that if the election were held today, Republicans would retain their majority in the Senate, winning 52 seats with two more being very close to tipping over. However, with 2016, anything could happen.
