2016 could be a record-breaking year for millennial Hispanic voters. The Pew Research Center released a report on Tuesday that showed a surge in eligible Latino voters between 2012 and 2016, and noted that nearly half of this growing demographic are millennials who have just come of voting age.
The Hispanic electorate as a whole has historically leaned heavily towards the Democratic Party. In the 2012 election, Hispanic voters preferred Obama over Republican nominee Mitt Romney by a huge margin — 71 percent to 27 percent. With 3.2 million new young Hispanic voters entering the equation this year, the question is, will Republicans be able to turn the tide in their favor?
The Republican National Committee has stepped up its game in battleground states with growing Hispanic populations such as Florida, Nevada, and Colorado, according to Ruth Guerra, the RNC’s director of Hispanic media.
“Since 2013, we’ve had a permanent field operation in states like Colorado, engaging the Hispanic community on a daily basis,” Guerra told CBS News in Denver. We know we can’t parachute in 3 to 6 months before the election and ask the Hispanic community for their vote.”
As part of their field operation, the RNC recently released a $250,000 ad buy for their Republican Leadership Initiative, highlighting 22-year-old Mario Ruiz from Pueblo, Colo. In the ad, Ruiz talks about his parents who emigrated to the U.S. from Mexico with no more than a third grade education, and how he was the first in his family to graduate college.
Both parties are also targeting Nevada, where Pew found the amount of eligible Hispanic voters has increased by a whopping 70 percent since 2008. The state will also be holding its Democratic and Republican caucuses in February.
Meanwhile, the GOP continues to struggle with both the youth and Hispanic vote, and polling data shows these groups may have shifted even further to the left since 2012.
Many fear that Republican rhetoric on immigration, including criticism of President Obama’s 2014 executive order, will hurt the Party’s chance to win Hispanic voters.
There is also concern that Donald Trump will alienate Hispanic voters. At a meeting of conservative Latino activists late last year, several leaders warned the GOP field that they would withhold support from candidates, like Trump, who are not “receptive” to their community.
“Mr. Trump has become a promoter of hate, division and insult and if Mr. Trump were to be the Republican nominee — I don’t think he has a chance at winning the general election,” said Tony Suarez of the National Hispanic Christian Leadership Conference.
The Democratic National Committee is banking on Trump’s ability to polarize voters, calling Trump “the best recruiter we have in terms of getting Latino voters registered and out to the polls.”
