How did a candidate like Donald Trump, who is despised by political elites and disliked by Americans, become the nominee of a major American political party?
The answer lies in electoral reforms established after the 1968 Democratic convention, during which party elite favorite Hubert Humphrey was selected as the party nominee over the insurgent anti-war candidate Eugene McCarthy. Humphrey was chosen even though he did not compete in a single primary, which were dominated by anti-war candidates.
McCarthy’s supporters demonstrated their fury over Humphrey’s selection by turning out in the tens of thousands to violently protest at the convention. The Democratic elites recognized that they had to embrace reform if they were to retain the loyalty of their voters, and so the McGovern-Fraser Commission was created in the hopes of democratizing the convention.
In an effort to encourage a democratic selection process, the McGovern-Fraser Commission diminished the role of political parties in choosing party nominees. By increasing the number of primaries, and by creating rules that required party delegates to vote for candidates based on the popular vote in their states, the McGovern-Fraser reforms prevented party elites from choosing, or even screening, candidates for office. Instead, candidates now win party nominations based on their popularity among voters who turn out to vote in the primaries. The problem is that the voters who vote in primaries are not representative of typical Americans, and generally, they are the most ideologically extreme voters.
The McGovern-Fraser reforms repressed voter turnout, especially in primaries. As a result, a very small number of voters now participate in primaries. According to recent figures, 28.5% of all eligible voters cast ballots in the 2016 primary contests, and that number is high compared to previous years.
Those voters who do show up to the polls on election day tend to be ideologically radical and favor candidates like Donald Trump. Only ideologically extreme voters turn out for primaries because they tend to care more about the outcomes of primaries than more moderate voters do. Regardless of the reasons why low turnout occurs, though, it has consistently enabled a small group of voters to select candidates who do not reflect the positions of most Americans.
The rank-and-file voters who participate in primaries often vote for demagogues, or divisive figures who use inflammatory rhetoric for political gain, instead of candidates who are better-suited for office. This is due to the fact that many people are easily swayed by appeals to fear and prejudice, both of which Trump uses often. As a result, modern primaries enable unpopular candidates such as Donald Trump rise to power, instead of the more moderate choices that party officials would select.
No example illustrates this reality better than the ascendance of Donald Trump. Trump was despised by the party establishment, yet experienced a meteoric rise anyhow. Donald Trump became the nominee of the Republican Party even though prominent party elites, notably Paul Ryan, Mitt Romney, and the Bush family, rejected him. The radically conservative news outlet Breitbart went so far as to claim that Donald Trump is more despised by the Republican establishment than Hillary Clinton is. Many ordinary Americans also dislike Trump, according to Real Clear Politics: roughly 60.4% of Americans view Trump unfavorably, and only about 35.9% approve of him. Yet a large percentage of Republican voters who participated in primaries chose Donald Trump, which shows that they are not representative of most Republicans—or most Americans.
The fact that Trump eventually became the Republican nominee reflects how the McGovern-Fraser reforms have shifted presidential nominee selection power to rank-and-file voters and away from party elites. While such a democratic system sounds appealing in theory, rank-and-file voters are, by nature, less informed than party elites about which candidates are a.) most likely to win the presidency and b.) suited, in terms of character, for executive office.
The McGovern-Fraser reforms were damaging and have enabled the rise of divisive figures like Donald Trump. We must restore the role of political parties in choosing presidential nominees if we wish to have the choice between two presidential nominees who are qualified, competent, and likable.
