Millennials are deserting the conservative political values of their parents and grandparents, which could signal a more dramatic shift in political alignment than has been seen in decades.
“Growing ideological distance is not confined to partisanship. There are also growing ideological divisions along educational and generational lines,” the Pew Research Center found in a new survey.
The graybeards, however, have changed more than the youth.
Forty-five percent of millennials are consistently or mostly liberal, a slight increase from 41 percent in 2004. However, older generations have swung to the conservative camp. Baby Boomers were 21 percent conservative in 2004 and the Silent generation was 23 percent conservative in 2004. Now, 36 percent of Boomers and 40 percent of Silents have become conservative.
Democrats don’t have such a dramatic generational divide in their party, but for Republicans, age makes all the difference.
Only 34 percent of Republican millennials are mostly or consistently conservative. A 51 percent majority of them hold “mixed” political values, and 16 percent are mostly or consistently liberal. It’s as if the youth wing doesn’t recognize party elders; 64 percent of Boomers and 69 percent of Silents in the GOP are mostly or consistently conservative.
Analysts have discussed a generational problem for the GOP for years. That doesn’t mean Republicans are doomed to be the permanent minority party in the government, but the emerging data writes a narrative that isn’t much heard. Millennials aren’t fleeing the Republican Party; the Republican Party is fleeing millennials. Older generations are opposing any change to what the Republican Party stands for. That leaves Republican millennials as a minority, in age and political values, in their own party.
That generational divide has been fought in the primary through the campaign of Donald Trump. Millennials as a whole refuse to support Trump. Trump has won state primaries with the support of older generations. If he takes the nomination, it will be the culmination of the widening generational divide. For millennial Republicans, it will force them to question which their political futures belong with a party that has proved disdainful of younger attitudes toward marijuana, gay marriage, and foreign policy.
Much of this change has been from increased ideological consistency. Democrats have become more liberal and Republicans have become more conservative. Millennials, still figuring out their political beliefs and introducing new strains of thought to the parties, feel the squeeze. The effect has been more pronounced in the GOP, but the Democrats aren’t immune.
If the Republicans can’t recognize the changing political persuasion of its young supporters, however, they risk alienating their future base for the sake of their past.
