Tuesday’s primary provided Trump not only with a win, but the nomination, as Ted Cruz dropped out Tuesday night and John Kasich announced he would do so on Wednesday. Trump won nearly all demographics and exceeded predictions by winning with 17 points, at 53.3 percent of the vote.
Hillary Clinton was leading early in the evening and had a Real Clear Politics average lead. However, the final results turned out for Bernie Sanders, who won 52.7 percent of the vote.
Despite Sanders’ win, the general election is likely to be between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. In that matchup, polls show a preference from young people for Hillary. But, trends from exit poll data may paint a different picture.
Trump won with every age group in Indiana, including 47 percent of those 17-29 and 48 percent of 30-44 years old.
Hillary was once more killed among young people. Sanders won those 17-29 by 74 percent and those 30-44 by 64 percent. The numbers are more pronounced when broken down further. He won those 17-24 by 82 percent.
Young people were the smallest voting demographic for 2012 and 2014, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Hillary has the support from older voters, who do vote, allowing her to easily win state primaries while badly losing young voters.
Of the exit poll data available, Trump has won voters 18-44 in 16 states. Hillary has won five, though some were with data available only for those 30-39, or while still losing the 18-24 or 18-29 age crowd.
Sanders himself has expressed doubt that Hillary can win over his young supporters, and Trump already has taken to appealing to them.
E.J. Dionne, of The Washington Post, suggested if Trump has a path to the presidency it’s with the Rust Belt and young voters, particularly if they don’t turn out for Hillary. The concern for Hillary with young voters in swing states has also been noted by Professor Carlos L. Yordan of Drew University.
Hillary may not be very concerned when young people make up the largest voting bloc but don’t vote. In an election where anything can happen though, the demographic could be her downfall, especially if the results are in any way similar to those in Indiana.
