On what alternate universe will Democrats enjoy a D +19 turnout advantage over Republicans on election day? Well, that would be Planet Pew:
The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted July 16-26, 2012, among 2,508 adults, including 1,956 registered voters, finds that, in keeping with his favorability advantage, Obama continues to hold a sizable lead over Romney in the election contest. Currently, 51% say they support Obama or lean toward him, while 41% support or lean toward Romney.
Except….
Sample Size:
459 Republicans
813 Democrats
599 Independents
In the best election season Democrats have enjoyed since Nixon resigned, 2008, the Democrat advantage was only D+8, but Pew is now attempting to hustle us into believing the turnout this year is going to be D +19.
The internals make even less sense. According to the same Pew poll that has Obama up by 10 nationally, he’s only ahead by 4 in the swings states, but he’s losing to Romney with independents 45-43%.
As if that doesn’t make Pew look ridiculous enough, The Economist released a new national poll today with a slightly less absurd sample of D +10, but they show Romney in the lead, 46-44%.
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