The American population is growing more and more diverse, meaning that the Republican party will likely need to win a record percentage of the minority vote in order to secure the presidency in 2016.
According to details in a new report cosponsored by the American Enterprise Institute, the Center for American Progress, and demographer William H. Frey of the Brookings Institution, the share of white eligible voters in America has declined 15 percentage points since 1980 and now sits at approximately 70 percent.
Moreover, by 2060 — 45 years from now — white eligible voters will be in the minority, while non-whites will make up 54 percent of the eligible voter population.
The report, titled “States of Change: Demographics and Democracy project,” also highlights the rise of majority-minority U.S. states. Though there are only four of their kind currently, the report projects that there will be 22 majority-minority states in 2060.
Ten additional states will likely be at least 40 percent minority.
Of course, more minority voters means the Republican party will need to not only continue to win minority support but win more minority support. Back in 2004 when George W. Bush secured the White House, the GOP candidate won 58 percent of the white vote and 26 percent of the non-white vote, as the Huffington Post points out.
And, according to Republican pollster Whit Ayres who spoke at a panel discussion of the report, such percentages would not win the presidency for Republicans today.
“That’s the stunning part for me in running these numbers — to realize that the last Republican to win a presidential election, who reached out very aggressively to minorities, and did better than any Republican nominee before or since among minorities, still didn’t achieve enough of both of those groups in order to put together a [2016] winning percentage,” explained Ayres.
He called the changing composition of presidential electorates the “fundamental challenge” of the GOP.
The total population of the United States is currently 63 percent white, while back in 1980 white Americans made up 80 percent of the population. By 2060, the report projects that white Americans will be in the minority, comprising 44 percent of the population.
H/T Huffington Post
