Winter is — at least according to the calendar — turning to spring, but conservatives should be more concerned with another imminent changing of the seasons — primary to general. The early months of an election year are dominated by lower-turnout special elections and primary contests, during which campaigns can focus on high-turnout base voters — better known as senior citizens.
But November will bring a larger, and younger electorate, and as this fall’s pivotal midterms approach, Republicans will need to step outside their comfort zone and focus on messaging to Millennial voters — who are less likely to vote, less suspicious of President Barack Obama, less likely to break down along conventional partisan lines, and more difficult to reach through standard campaign tactics, but who may well determine what kind of night Team Red has on Nov. 4.
Last week’s special election in Florida’s 13th Congressional District was a perfect example of “off-season campaigning” at work. Although many optimistic conservatives seized on Republican David Jolly’s upset victory, and the media focused on Jolly’s use of Obamacare as a wedge issue, this low-turnout special in a senior-heavy district was much more localized than any contest this fall will be. For example, this ad, featuring Jolly’s mom and aunt, was one of his most prominent ads.
The themes in this ad — generational stability, local knowledge, ties to a late octogenarian politician — fit the elderly voters who turn out for special elections in mid-March to a T, but hold little appeal to anyone under the age of 60. Republicans excel at running these types of campaigns and appealing to this audience — both in special elections and in November, as seniors gave Mitt Romney 56 percent of the vote in 2012.
It’s tempting to think that the senior-baiting strategy may work for Republicans in November, because midterm electorates are historically older and whiter than presidential electorates. Millennials, for example, cast more votes than seniors in 2012, as exit polls found that 19 percent of the electorate was under 30 and 16 percent was over 65. But in 2010, seniors cast nearly twice as many ballots as Millennials, 21 percent to 12 percent. The white share of the electorate is also about 5 percent higher in midterms than in presidential years. Because the playing field is demographically stacked toward Republicans in years when we don’t elect a president, sticking to what’s familiar — courting the white senior vote at the expense of other groups — may seem like a winning strategy.
But if the GOP chooses to go down this road, they’ll be leaving critical votes on the table. Although Millennials aren’t the factor in midterms that they are in presidential years, millions of them will still vote this fall. And with the White House reeling from the ongoing Obamacare disaster and a diplomatic nightmare in Eastern Europe — not to mention lingering issues like high youth unemployment and a student loan bubble that could pop at any moment — Republicans have a critical opportunity to make gains with the demographic that holds the keys to both parties’ futures.
Recent off-year campaigns have already proven younger Millennials to be ripe for the picking. Ken Cuccinelli’s unsuccessful campaign for governor of Virginia last fall was generally regarded as a subpar effort, but the Republican shockingly managed to win the 18-24 demographic by 6 points despite losing the overall election by 2. Cuccinelli’s breakthrough with Virginia’s youngest voters may have been assisted by the College Republican National Committee, which ran ads in his support on Hulu, YouTube and Pandora, all of which are disproportionately used by young people. By reaching young people on platforms they use, and speaking a language unique to them (the ads were in the style of MTV’s popular Catfish show), the CRNC was able to move elusive voters for a much lower sum of money than it would have cost to run the ads on TV or radio.
Notably, Cuccinelli won 18- to 24-year-olds while losing the 25-29 demographic, continuing a trend from 2012 in which Millennials born after 1990 leaned more Republican than those born in the ‘80s. Intriguingly, the breakdown occurs between those who were old enough to vote for Obama in 2008, and those who were not. These younger Millennials were still in high school when Obama took office, and associate today’s problems — a dismal job market and exorbitant student loan rates, among others — with him, not George W. Bush. The president may still have older 20-something swept up in his symphony of hope and change, but those who were too young to buy into it in 2008 have little reason to do so now, and are proving a more receptive audience for dissenting voices.
Without the frenzy of a presidential race to create distractions, Republicans have as clear a shot at these children of the ’90s in 2014 as they will ever have. But even in the right climate, Millennials aren’t going to respond if the GOP can only offer campaign tactics aimed at getting their grandparents to the polls.
