To say with certainty that Bernie Sanders supporters will embrace Hillary Clinton underestimates his fans and bets on a shaky party loyalty.
“What happens is people forget in the fall,” Vanessa Williamson, a fellow at the Brookings Institution told International Business Times. “Democrats vote for the Democrats and Republicans vote for the Republicans.”
It doesn’t look to be the case now, however.
Of the 29 Sanders supporters International Business Times heard from, 11 said they’re voting third party. Six said they would definitely vote for Hillary, and the rest were undecided or are not voting.
Many Sanders supporters refuse to choose between the two-party system. Cameron Finley, 25, is leaning toward Gary Johnson.
“I have no love of the two-party system, and I don’t play into the game of voting for the lesser of two evils,” he said.
Even if they won’t directly vote for Trump, third-party voters could still help him by hurting Hillary.
A YouGov poll conducted June 2-5 reveals that only 43 percent of millennials who supported Sanders plan to support Hillary if she’s the nominee.
The poll asked voters “How many Bernie Sanders supporters do you think will vote for Hillary Clinton in the general election if Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee?” Of the Democratic primary voters who prefer Sanders, 34 percent said “some of them” and 30 percent said “most of them.” Only 5 percent say “all of them.”
A SurveyUSA poll showed that 46 percent of Sanders supporters would never vote for Hillary. The poll found that just 41 percent of voters under 35 plan to support her.
Emmy Ham, 22, is waiting for a sign from Sanders she might not get. Sanders previously mentioned at a town hall that his supporters will have to decide for themselves.
Kelly Collins, 27, refuses to vote for Hillary. “There are options. It’s not our responsibility to make sure Donald Trump isn’t president,” she said.
Those who feel a responsibility aren’t enthusiastic.
After AP called the Democratic primary for Hillary and she won California, #GirlIGuessImWithHer trended on Twitter and Facebook. Young people need to turn that social media presence into voting. It’s not guaranteed they will when they didn’t vote enough to hand Sanders the nomination, despite their enthusiasm.
Hillary needs a strong youth turnout, and a lack of it could endanger her chances. Trump could also exceed expectations with the youth vote.
Some Sanders supporters protested her speech at UC-Riverside. Those who dare to support Hillary on campus are ostracized. Sanders said he doesn’t think she’s done a good enough job with his base.
A change between now and November is possible, but it shouldn’t be assumed.
