With historically unpopular presidential front-runners like Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, more voters are threatening to forgo party loyalty and vote across enemy lines when they hit the polls in November.
Deep Root Analytics polling firm has identified 16 million voters, or 9 percent of the electorate, are “reluctant Republicans,” or voters who identify more with the Republican Party, but are willing to vote for Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump.
Another 14 million voters, or 8 percent of the electorate are “disaffected Democrats,” who are more aligned with the Democratic Party, but more likely to vote for Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton.
Deep Root studied these trends based on gender, race, and education level. Republican women, in particular, are more open to supporting Hillary Clinton, while white men who identify as Democrats are more likely to be “disaffected” from their party and turn towards Trump.
The Wall Street Journal reported these findings are in line with their polling data that shows “Mr. Trump runs far behind where 2012 Republican nominee Mitt Romney was among white women with college degrees, but performs much better than Mr. Romney did among white men who didn’t attend college.”
Views on trade policy and social issues seem to have persuaded many voters to jump ship. Deep Root also identified various “lifestyle indicators” associated with each group. Reluctant Republicans are often veterans, investors, and golfers, while disaffected Democrats tend to be single parents or parents with college graduates living at home.
These trends are significant outside just the presidential campaigns. In 2016, voters will be much more likely to split their vote for president from down-ballot contenders. Reluctant Republicans and disaffected Democrats may swing the presidential election, but they will still likely vote for their party’s candidate in House, Senate, and gubernatorial races.
“This year, just putting on the red jersey or the blue jersey doesn’t guarantee the usual support,” said Deep Root’s chief executive Brent McGoldrick.
