The Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning & Engagement (CIRCLE), in conjunction with other organizations, has released a useful and interactive study on the impact of young voters on the 2016 election.
Rather than releasing a white paper, CIRCLE created an interactive index, the “Youth Electoral Significance Score,” which measures to what degree the youth vote impacts each state and each election (president, senate, congress). Instead of the general argument that young voters will make a difference, this study provides the specific impact young voters have in each state and ranks them.
Here are the states where young voters will impact 2016 the most — and all of top states are swing states:
- Iowa
- New Hampshire
- Pennsylvania
- Ohio
- Colorado
- Wisconsin
- Virginia
- Florida
- North Carolina
- Nevada
Each state you select in the index includes different data points and rankings, based on:
- Predicted electoral competitiveness
- Facilitative election law score
- % of eligible citizen population under age 30
- % youth (under 30) enrolled in college
- Average youth turnout in past 3 presidential elections
- % of young voters with a mid-range voter propensity score
- % point difference in youth choice between major candidates
- % point difference between youth and 30+ support
- Turnout probability
These data points and rankings could and should be used by candidates to target their campaigning for the general election. If one Party’s candidate targets campuses and young professionals in these states, it could swing the election. This study also provides a summary of the issues millennials in each state prioritize — a tool which could be used to improve targeting.
In 2008 and 2012, President Obama targeted swing-state youth voters, and this new data illustrates that these voters could play a massive role in 2016. If Republicans can close the gap among voters under age 30 to 10 percent, they would win the election in a landslide.
The question is: Will Republicans pay attention to this data?
Unfortunately, what we’ve seen from Republican candidates so far is a total lack of effort in attracting young voters. Only two Republicans have plans to reform higher education and the student loan system. None have released economic plans aimed at young Americans.
If campaigns see this study, hopefully it will wake up some of the Republican candidates.
