He might be right, to an extent. Likely voters don’t pay attention to polls early. Many polls focus on those who identify as Republican leaning or registered voters, and they don’t necessarily turn out to vote, especially for primary elections. Where Paul sees his actual support, though, is questionable.

“We think that a lot of young people are not included in polls, college students and younger people with cell phones, and we think that’s where our great strength is,” he said.

While Paul’s numbers among millennials are better, about 6 percent, compared with his national support of 2.4 percent, young voters are a fickle bunch. They rarely vote in a general election, and a primary election is even less likely to motivate them. The rabid Rand Paul college students, thus far, have maintained a low profile. Paul could surprise everyone in the caucuses and primaries, but that appears more hope and conjecture than a solid campaign strategy.

At this point in the last election, Newt Gingrich led Mitt Romney in the polls after the decline of Herman Cain. Rand’s father, Ron, was in third with 12 percent support. Polls and elections see strange events, and a surge for Rand before or after the Iowa caucus could happen. The Paul campaign could have information about their supporters and donors that gives them more hope than polls would justify.

For now, however, that seems farfetched. A surge, led by millennials, would be an unprecedented occurrence for a candidate.