It’s no secret that Republicans struggle with the urban vote. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie’s win and Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli’s loss last night highlight why this is a much more important issue than many realize. If Republicans want to win more, they must learn to win cities. Doing so will help them with every demographic group as well.
Population density hurts Republicans. In areas with more than 800 people per square mile, Republicans usually lose.
However, population density did not hurt Chris Christie, even in his dark blue state that President Obama carried by his widest margin in 2012. A majority of people in all but two of New Jersey’s counties voted to reelect Christie as governor of New Jersey. This includes most counties with population exceeding 800 people per square mile.
Ken Cuccinelli was not elected governor of Virginia, which is an easier state for Republicans to win, as it is nowhere near as heavily Democratic as New Jersey. When comparing the election map with a population density map, it is clear that Cuccinelli won most areas with low population densities and lost most areas that have high population densities.
Republicans need to perform better in cities if they want to win more elections. While some are concerned this may mean Republicans need to abandon their values, this is not the case. It means they need to adopt a strategy focused on unity, inclusion, and engagement.
Christie has made great strides in cities, while maintaining his conservatism. He embraces bipartisanship without compromising his ideology, much in the same way as President Ronald Reagan did as governor of California. Americans want bipartisanship because elected officials are there to work for the people, not for their parties. It seems to make a big difference for Republicans in cities.
He takes care to frame himself as a candidate who represents New Jersey — not just Republicans. His state is heavily Democratic, meaning that focusing largely on his party, which is not the predominant party in his area, will not help him. Republicans cannot afford to market themselves solely towards Republicans in most states.
He engages all communities in his state, even if they may not initially be receptive to him. His constituents notice and appreciate it. One Democrat who supports Christie said in September, “How many Republicans are you going to see walking up and down these streets like this? … He’s approachable. I really like that.”
In many cities, Republicans avoid areas where people will not receive them well, which makes people feel as though Republicans don’t care. At his victory party, he sent a message to Republicans, saying, “We don’t just show up in the places where we’re comfortable, we show up in the places we’re uncomfortable … You don’t just show up 6 months before an election.”
According to exit polls, Christie won groups with which Republicans usually struggle, including women and Hispanic people. He won people of all levels of education and income. He only lost young people by about 2 percent. He won 93 percent of Republicans, 66 percent of independents, and 32 percent of Democrats. He also won a larger percentage of every single group reported than he did in 2009. It seems winning cities means winning larger percentages of every demographic group.
Republicans need to overcome their problems in cities, or risk losing more local, state, and national elections. Judging from Christie, it seems this entails maintaining ideology, being more inclusive and bipartisan, and engaging people in all parts of cities.
