Republicans have a major advantage over Democrats in voter enthusiasm heading into November and President Obama’s greatest challenge will be getting his base to turnout.
In June, Gallup found that Democrats’ enthusiasm about voting was “down sharply” when compared to 2004 and 2008. In the summer of 2004, 68 percent of Democrats were “more enthusiastic than usual” about voting compared with 51 percent of Republicans.
When President Obama was first elected in 2008, that number was a 61 percent – 35 percent split. In June 2012, the numbers had flipped and Democrats’ enthusiasm bottomed out at just 39 percent. By comparison, 51 percent of Republicans were more enthusiastic.
New research from Resurgent Republic fleshes out just how devastating the lack of enthusiasm on the Left will be for President Obama’s chances at winning re-election. President Obama’s support among young voters, for example, whom he swept in 2008 by 66 to 32 percent favor the president 53 to 35 percent — nearly a 50 drop.
President Obama’s anti-Catholic policies, like the HHS mandate forcing the Catholic Church to pay for birth control and abortions, have put Catholic voters up for grabs with an even 47-47 split between Obama and Romney.
With so many Democrats disappointed in President Obama’s record to date, his re-election campaign faces an uphill battle in matching his performance in 2008. With only 5 percent of national voters undecided, Resurgent Republic’s polling analysis warns that “it will be difficult for President Obama to close these gaps by winning the undecided voters outright.”
While Democrats are less excited about voting for President Obama in 2012, Republicans are more excited about sending him packing. Key Republican demographics, like Evangelicals, white males, and married voters, are more enthusiastic about voting.
With fewer than 90 days to go until the election, President Obama’s greatest challenge is not winning over independents, but rather energizing his own base so they will turn out in November.
