Pundits have been falling over themselves for months making predictions about the 2014 midterm elections. Many expect that the GOP will pick up seats in the United States Senate, if not claim the majority outright.
Most frequently considered competitive are the usual swing states, such as Iowa and Colorado, but many states that Mitt Romney carried in 2012 — including West Virginia, South Dakota and Montana — also have open seats, which increases the likelihood of a GOP takeover in these states.
However, there are other races that the pundits are essentially ignoring. While the national parties and pundits may have written these races off as unwinnable, their opinions have not stopped the motion on the ground.
New Jersey is one of these states with a “non-competitive” Senate seat up for re-election. It is not surprising that the race is labeled as such. The last time that the state of New Jersey elected a member of the Republican Party to the U.S. Senate was in 1972, when Clifford Case was elected to his final term.
Presently, the seat is held by former Newark mayor Cory Booker, who won the seat in last year’s closer than expected special election over Republican Steve Lonegan.
Booker is a formidable opponent in any election. He has proven himself to be a very charismatic speaker and an exceptionally skilled fundraiser. Many in New Jersey even believed that Gov. Chris Christie (R) had even avoided scheduling the special election concurrently with the gubernatorial election to avoid appearing on the same ballot as the then-mayor.
However, this does not make Booker invincible. A March 2014 poll had his approval rating at just 47 percent, albeit higher than his 37 percent approval rating in December.
Booker’s record as mayor of Newark may not be pristine either. State Sens. Ron Rice (D-Essex) and Sam Thompson (R-Middlesex) have called for an investigation into reports of widespread mismanagement and corruption at the Newark Watershed Conservation Development Corp.
Booker has also been heavily criticized for relying on Hollywood for much of his donor base, leading former opponent Lonegan to dub him “California’s third Senator.”
Hopes for a strong candidate on the Republican ticket were initially dashed when no members of the New Jersey Legislature stepped up to challenge Booker. Nor did Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno, who some have suggested might someday run for Congress.
This does not mean that Booker will be unopposed in the fall, however. Four candidates have filed to run against him on the Republican ticket: businessman Brian D. Goldberg, Ramapo College professor Murray Sabrin, businessman Rich Pezzullo and political consultant Jeff Bell.
Despite Christie’s landslide win last fall, it is unlikely that he will be of much help to whichever candidate gets the nomination. Even though he enjoyed high approval ratings at the time of the election, the balance in the legislature remained unchanged. Since then, he has been battling his own scandal surrounding the “Bridgegate” investigation. He has so far declined to endorse any of the potential nominees.
While New Jersey is often written off as a solid hold for the Democrats, this may be premature. It is not unheard of for incumbents deemed invincible in the spring to lose in the fall.
In 2008, Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R-N.C.) was defeated by a then-little known candidate, Kay Hagan. In that same year, Sen. Ted Stevens (R-Alaska) lost his re-election bid. Both had been considered invincible just months prior.
It is reasonable to believe that if Lonegan could come within 11 points of beating Booker without sufficient support from the Republican National Committee, then one of these candidates could beat him if the RNC would get behind their candidacy.
Goldberg has enjoyed a large amount of support at various county conventions and Sabrin has proven that he can earn votes in a general election, having managed to obtain more than 110,000 votes as the Libertarian candidate for Governor in 1997.
Booker’s biggest weapon is his war chest and if the Republicans can compete with him in the money game, then they can beat him with their message. But if the RNC refuses to help, then New Jersey will be a huge missed opportunity.
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Disclaimer: C.M. Gabbett is a member of the Ramapo College Republicans, for which Sabrin, Goldberg and Pezzullo have been guest speakers.
