Presumptive Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson is a long shot for the White House, but he’s cemented himself in the 2016 election.
Kingmaker he is not — spoilermaker he could be.
“Given that Trump and Clinton are sporting historically high negative ratings, Johnson’s polling makes a fair bit of sense; Gary Johnson is neither Donald Trump nor Hillary Clinton. He might not win a state, but he could make some noise,” according to FiveThirtyEight.
The Libertarian Party hasn’t progressed beyond 1 percent of the popular vote, but the candidates who are less popular than “dumpster fires” have given Johnson an opening with masses of voters he couldn’t reach otherwise. Recent polls have him at 10 percent, reaching heights that no third-party candidate has since Ross Perot in the 1990s.
Johnson’s record as governor in New Mexico was mixed from a libertarian perspective on spending, but it wouldn’t be the first time the Libertarian Party nominated a weakly ideological candidate.
Beyond critiques of Johnson as not libertarian enough, his presence could mirror for Republicans what Ralph Nader was to Democrats in 2000. If Johnson gets enough votes to deny Trump the presidency, conservatives will treat him as a scapegoat. Support for Gary Johnson is support for Hillary Clinton.
A more reasonable analysis would be to blame Donald Trump for losing to Hillary Clinton by not appealing to voters. Just as Nader voters were expected to change for Al Gore, rather than Al Gore changing to appeal to Nader voters, Johnson could be the lightning rod for Republican anger.
What will determine that fate is polling averages. “If Gary Johnson wants to make it onto a primetime presidential-debate stage as the Libertarian Party’s nominee, he needs to qualify by polling above 15 percent,” The Atlantic noted. Primetime stage access would boost his name recognition and give him an opportunity to reach the 47 percent of registered voters open to supporting a third-party candidate.
Polling at 15 percent is difficult partially because, as Breitbart noted, “the average voter would be hard pressed to find any poll that covered third parties in any meaningful way.” Johnson rarely registers support in polls because pollsters don’t include his name.
Voters are already disappointed by Trump and Clinton. Johnson is primed to pick up the support of the disillusioned if they can tolerate his political identification as “socially liberal and fiscally conservative.” Americans haven’t rallied behind a third party since Teddy Roosevelt’s Progressive Party, an election that split the Republican vote for Woodrow Wilson to seize the presidency in 1912. In 2016, Johnson smells an opportunity.
