President Trump’s recent polling slump has given Democrats hope that they can retake not only the White House but also the Senate in November.
Republicans are defending 21 Senate seats this year, including two of the three seats considered most likely to change parties and all three rated by most political analysts as toss-ups. Democrats are only defending 12 seats. That may not even demonstrate the full extent of the GOP’s vulnerability if Trump’s numbers don’t recover. Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority, counting two independents who caucus with Senate Democrats.
“There are two things about the political climate that threaten GOP Senate incumbents,” said Democratic strategist Brad Bannon. “A new Gallup poll has the president’s job rating at 39%, which is dangerously low and currently not high enough to support a Republican majority. A new survey by the Wall Street Journal and NBC News has 80% of the public thinking that things in this country are out of control, a figure that is dangerously high.”
In fact, Trump’s job approval in Gallup is down 10 points in a month as the country endures civil unrest over police brutality faced by the black community in addition to the coronavirus and an economic slowdown. He is also trailing presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden in national and most battleground state polls. The president is behind by a margin of 8.1 percentage points in the RealClearPolitics nationwide polling average.
Democrats are seriously targeting five Republican incumbents: Sens. Susan Collins of Maine, Cory Gardner of Colorado, Martha McSally of Arizona, Thom Tillis of North Carolina, and Steve Daines of Montana. They are hoping they can expand the map to include Sen. Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the chamber’s Republican leader, as well as Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina and Sen. Joni Ernst of Iowa, though those are all reaches and contests in states Trump is still favored to win.
Republicans’ best pickup opportunity is in Alabama, where Democratic Sen. Doug Jones would be a serious underdog to whichever Republican emerges from the July primary runoff: former Sen. Jeff Sessions or former Auburn football coach Tommy Tuberville. The party also has a shot at Democratic Sen. Gary Peters of Michigan, who is leading Republican challenger John James but not always by a comfortable margin. One recent survey had Peters up by 15 points, but another by a Democratic firm had him ahead by only 5.
One advantage Republicans enjoy: 19 of their 21 incumbents come from states Trump won in 2016. One of the two exceptions is Maine, which Trump lost by fewer than 3 points while carrying the state’s 2nd Congressional District, good for one electoral vote. The other is Colorado, where Trump lost by fewer than 5 points. Libertarian Gary Johnson won more than 5% in both states.
Democrats think Collins’s reputation for moderation has become suspect among Maine voters, especially after she supported Trump on impeachment and Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination to the Supreme Court. McSally is coming off a loss to Democratic Sen. Kyrsten Sinema in the 2018 midterm elections and was appointed to her seat by Arizona’s Republican governor.
“If Joe Biden wins the presidential race, a net gain of three seats would do the trick,” Bannon said.
Republicans caution that dark money groups have until recently given Democrats the airwaves to themselves in many of these states, but that is starting to change. “Many of these Democrats are undefined,” said Jesse Hunt, communications director for the Senate GOP’s campaign arm. “Republicans are starting earlier than ever to define them and litigate their records and backgrounds.”
“I would be worried if this were October,” said Republican strategist John Feehery. “As we know, we still have a lot of twists and turns before we get to the finish line. And keep in mind, Trump’s poll numbers have never been that great. I think the big question is, can he keep the scientists from trying to close down America again? You already see that they want to do precisely that.”
Republicans are hopeful that an improving economy will turn Trump, and their Senate candidates’ fortunes, around. Unemployment dropped last month as the economy added 2.5 million jobs and states shed their coronavirus lockdowns.
There are also upcoming primaries pitting establishment Democratic candidates against progressive challengers. Former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper is taking heat for accepting millions in off-the-books donations, which could leave him vulnerable to the more liberal Andrew Romanoff. Amy McGrath is facing off against progressive Charles Booker in Kentucky.
“Bernie Sanders’s candidacy has ended, but his movement still has a chance to show off its muscle in these two campaigns,” Bannon said. “Booker’s campaign has really taken off.”
In 2018, Trump was an asset to Senate Republicans in mostly red-state contests and a liability in suburban congressional districts. Republicans lost their House majority that year while increasing it in the Senate.
