A number of recent signs suggest that former President Donald Trump’s influence is beginning to wane among key factions of his base, but Democratic squabbles over President Joe Biden’s dual infrastructure proposals could give him a new lease on life heading into the midterm elections and beyond.
Trump’s No. 1 issue since leaving office has been auditing the results of the 2020 election. However, the audit carried out by Arizona’s Republican-controlled state Senate, made public Friday, not only confirmed Biden’s win over Trump, but actually expanded his margin of victory.
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Furthermore, a straw poll published over the weekend by the Detroit News showed Trump’s influence waning among Michigan Republican voters. That poll, conducted among more than 740 attendees at the Mackinac Republican Leadership Conference, found that 44% of respondents thought Trump’s down-ballot endorsements made “no difference” in their support for candidates. 11% claimed that a Trump endorsement made them less likely to vote for a candidate. Additionally, 60% said they would vote for Republican candidates who “didn’t agree with Trump’s assertion that the 2020 election was stolen.”
“This poll suggests that Donald Trump’s grip on the party is not quite as tight as people think,” Detroit News columnist Nolan Finley said. “I doubt anyone would have expected his support would have been under 50% with this crowd.”
Still, three senior Democratic officials told the Washington Examiner that failing to pass the $1.2 trillion bipartisan physical infrastructure proposal and the $3.5 trillion “human” infrastructure budget reconciliation package will effectively guarantee that Democrats lose majorities in both chambers of Congress, something Trump will almost certainly take credit for and use to restrengthen his hold over the GOP.
“That’s the worst-case scenario,” one official stated. “The president’s been in office for nearly a year, and at this point, Trump’s popularity is flatlining. Giving him literally anything to hang his hat on would reenergize Republicans heading into a crucial election for our country’s future, especially as we’re still fighting to get the pandemic under control.”
A number of Democratic officials previously voiced similar sentiments to the Washington Examiner, claiming that Democratic congressional leaders wouldn’t hold up the bill over minor disagreements due to concerns about the election.
“We’ve got a unique opportunity to tout real, tangible things for voters next year and whack Republicans over the head for opposing really popular programs,” one official said at the time. “I think everyone recognizes that. Maybe the number comes down a bit, but at the end of the day, progressives, the White House, and moderates all know we’ve got to head into ’22 with some tangibles for voters, on top of getting us out of the pandemic.”
Biden put the situation in even starker terms Monday. When asked by a reporter, “What’s at stake for your agenda and your presidency with what’s happening on the Hill this week,” the president responded simply: “Victory.”
Trump himself has vociferously attacked the infrastructure bills, Republican Senators who supported the bipartisan package, and Biden’s legislative agenda at large.
On Monday, Trump released a statement claiming, “Republicans in the Senate have the cards, including political cards, to stop the onslaught of Democrat Legislation that will further lead to the destruction of the United States.”
“The 19 Senators who voted for the (non) Infrastructure Bill, of which only 11% is infrastructure as we know it, have created a big setback for Republicans,” he wrote. “They can’t make mistakes like that again. They must play every card in the deck!”
A senior Trump administration official familiar with Trump’s post-White House plans suggested that Trump would be reenergized by an infrastructure failure and would likely increase his campaigning across the nation.
“If there’s one thing that Donald Trump loves, it’s winning, and the Dems’ absolute disarray on infrastructure pushes him closer to running again,” the official told the Washington Examiner. “I imagine we’ll see a massive sweep in favor of Trump-endorsed candidates, and I’d keep my eyes peeled on where the president campaigns in the coming months.”
Kaelan Dorr, a former Trump Treasury official and the current spokesman for America First Policy Institute, echoed that claim.
“As of now, the opportunity to take down the cadaver in chief, Joe Biden, and share a big ‘I told you so’ to everyone who supported the non-existent Democrat agenda is almost too good to be true,” he said in a statement.
It’s worth noting that although Trump’s popularity might have slipped in recent months, he still remains the clear leader of the party, and should he announce his candidacy, he would remain the presumptive presidential nominee heading into 2024.
Despite Trump’s clear loss in the Arizona audit saga, Republicans in multiple states, including Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin, have recently launched their own attempts to audit the 2020 election.
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Trump nearly doubled Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’s results when Mackinac straw poll respondents were asked about 2024 presidential favorites, receiving 47.5% of the vote to DeSantis’s 25%. Nonprofit, nonpartisan organization PredictIt.org similarly lists Trump as the clear Republican favorite for 2024, again nearly doubling DeSantis’s odds.
