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Betting markets don’t help election predictions

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Betting markets on Tuesday’s presidential election are trending. The betting markets place a 64% probability that former President Donald Trump will defeat Vice President Kamala Harris.

What is perplexing about this probability figure is that the presidential polls show a dead heat. Moreover, nonpartisan polling experts say that the presidential race is essentially a toss-up. So, are the betting sites a strong gauge of voter sentiment because a wide range of participants are wagering real money, or are the polls more accurate?

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