Trust in government has fallen significantly worldwide since the early days of the pandemic. According to the new Edelman Trust Barometer, trust in government across the globe is down 13 points since May of 2020.
In America, the decline follows a much longer trendline. The Pew Research Center has data going back to the 1950s showing a consistent decline in trust in government, from 73% in 1958 to a dismal 24% in the spring of 2021. Gallup data also reveal a long-term steep decline in government trust at the federal level for both the executive and legislative branches.
When trust in government falls, there are real and serious consequences. Most people recognize lower trust in government makes it harder for us to solve our collective problems and destroys a sense of community.
Of particular importance right now, low trust in government affects views of federally controlled or funded agencies, such as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. These agencies require credibility to be effective in a crisis. My organization, the State Policy Network, has been tracking trust in a variety of institutions during the pandemic. We found that trust in the CDC has fallen from 60% in March 2020 to 41% in December 2021. Low trust in government also undermines faith in our processes and procedures that allow for peaceful transfer of power and acceptance of judicial rulings. While skepticism of government is a time-honored American tradition, too little confidence in our leaders will surely lead to ruin.
Trust is created when behavior matches expectations. Confidence in the federal government has fallen so much because it rarely meets expectations, both by over-promising and under-delivering. The federal government frequently asserts that it can fix most of our problems if only it is given more money and power. Yet, with every increase in taxes and regulation, the problems only seem to get worse. Meanwhile, the basic functions of government, such as accurate financial reporting and timely tax processing, deteriorate.
The detailed Gallup data show another interesting pattern. While trust in the federal government dropped from 70% in 1972 to 39% in 2021, trust in state government dropped only six points, from 63% to 57%, and trust in local government actually rose three points from 63% to 66%. As confidence in Washington plummets, people still feel optimistic about what their local leaders can achieve.
That optimism is well placed. Local governments are far more effective than far away Washington. They are more likely to see the effects of policy and be able to act quickly to correct unintended consequences. More importantly, they are more likely to care. When leaders of a community live in the area they govern, they have a stake in the best possible outcomes, not just the ones that raise the most money or get the most attention. Public opinion data from the last 50 years show that incentive has generally led to positive results and trust in communities.
From the COVID-19 response to subverting state election laws, the current administration argues that the federal government needs more authority to solve the nation’s problems. But it has been well proven that ceding more power to the federal government will accomplish nothing but larger failure and a further decline in government’s credibility. Trust will only rebound when there is higher civic engagement. Local politics offer a template for national success.
Erin Norman is the Lee Family Fellow and Senior Messaging Strategist at State Policy Network.