A bill to enshrine legal abortion that the White House reiterated its support for Tuesday appears to be dead in the Senate.
But that hasn’t stopped members of both political parties from predicting their stance on it will boost their fortunes with voters in November.
Senate Democrats failed Monday to clear a procedural vote in the Senate for the Women’s Health Protection Act, which would prohibit some state-level abortion restrictions, putting vulnerable members on the record for the controversial measure before November’s elections.
LIBERAL ABORTION BILL FAILS TO CLEAR SENATE HURDLE BUT PUTS DEMOCRATS ON RECORD
“It’s a classic example of the GOP playing to its base without considering the negative impact it might have on independent voters, especially women living in the suburbs,” said Democratic strategist Brad Bannon. “The GOP is betting that this is going to be an election all about turning out your base. The problem is, on a vote like this, it not only turns out your base, it also turns out the Democratic base.”
The motion to proceed on the abortion bill did not meet the requisite 60-vote threshold to begin debate on the bill, blocking a final vote on the legislation. The vote failed 46-48. Six senators did not vote, including Georgia’s Raphael Warnock, who will be on the ballot this year in a traditionally red state.
Tensions over the abortion issue could come to a head in June when the Supreme Court is expected to decide Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, a case concerning a Mississippi law banning abortion after 15 weeks. Some analysts argue Dobbs will prompt the court to revise or reconsider Roe.
Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia was the only Democrat to oppose the WHPA motion, but his vote means the bill is likely dead in the evenly divided chamber.
That may be beside the point. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer appeared to embrace putting senators on record with regard to the matter, telling reporters at a press conference that he brought the “long overdue” bill up for a vote because “every American deserves to know where their senator stands on an issue as important as the right to choose.”
That’s something Bannon thinks will be an advantage for Democratic senators, even those in swing states.
“You have votes on things like this because it basically weaponizes the votes for the midterm elections,” he said.
But Republicans are betting that the issue will work out in their favor.
“If there was any remaining doubt, tonight’s vote makes clear that Joe Biden and Democrats are absolute abortion extremists,” said Republican National Committee Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel. “From endorsing taxpayer-funded abortion up to the point of birth to opposing even the most commonsense pro-life protections, Democrats’ abortion fanaticism is at odds with the vast majority of Americans. Voters will hold them accountable in November.”
An anti-abortion group called the Susan B. Anthony List has launched a $1 million ad campaign against Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly over his sponsorship of the Women’s Health Protection Act.
There are even dueling polls that partisans from each side can point to. A January CNN poll found that 69% of people were opposed to seeing Roe v. Wade completely overturned, while a Marist poll released the same month found that 71% support significant limits on abortion.
That overlap is on display in the Reproductive Choice Act, sponsored by centrist Republican Sens. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Susan Collins of Maine. The sponsors tout it as a compromise bill that would codify Roe, in contrast to “the sweeping Women’s Health Protection Act.”
Both senators say they support abortion rights but oppose portions of the WHPA that would supersede state laws and infringe on religious freedom.
“The fact that my choice is between this bill, or nothing at all, shows how insincere Majority Leader Schumer is about protecting women’s rights,” Murkowski said in a statement about her alternative. “Failing to conduct any outreach and reducing this important issue to nothing more than a designed-to-fail show vote is a disservice to women across America.”
As the Biden administration works to turn around low approval ratings ahead of the November midterm elections, it has also thrown its support behind the Democratic-backed abortion bill and against state-level restrictions.
“Today, we mark six months since Texas law SB 8 went into effect, brazenly violating Texans’ constitutional rights and empowering private citizens to act as bounty hunters against their neighbors,” White House press secretary Jen Psaki said in a Tuesday statement. “Now, a number of other states are also considering passing laws in open defiance of the U.S. Constitution, threatening the reproductive freedom of all Americans. These restrictions are particularly devastating for communities of color, rural Americans, and all those faced with fewer options and fewer resources.”
If Roe v. Wade is overturned after 49 years, voters will have a direct say in abortion access for the first time in decades. Florida State professor Mary Ziegler, who has written extensively about reproductive politics, argues that Republican leaders in red states are testing out 15-week abortion bans to see how voters react, and may go for further restrictions if they find support.
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
“Seems like the only way there could be something like the WHPA passed is if there [is] a game-changing backlash to the reversal of Roe,” she said in a tweet. “And that is far from guaranteed.”
