Recent years have witnessed growing concerns from the United States and its allies over the atomic arsenals of a revanchist Russia and the possibility of a nuclear weapons breakout by the Islamic Republic of Iran, the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism. Washington is right to worry about Moscow and Tehran; both are imperialistic powers that pose their own set of challenges. But it is in the Pacific, where the U.S. first ushered in the atomic age, that an even graver danger is emerging.
China’s nuclear buildup is deeply concerning. China is the fastest-growing nuclear power in the world, building no fewer than 100 new nuclear weapons per year. According to Robert Peters, a senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation, China is “on track to reach strategic parity with the U.S. in 10 years.” It is worth dwelling on what this might mean, because it would be a seismic shift in the strategic balance of power.
The U.S. spent most of both the Cold War and recent decades as the preeminent nuclear superpower, challenged for most of that time only by the Soviets. Still, America outpaced the Soviet Union in both economic and technical terms. China, by contrast, is the “factory of the world.” China not only has a stronger strategic hand than the Soviet Union, but it also has the desire to play it.
Put simply, China wants to remake the Indo-Pacific, the region that will account for the majority of the world’s GDP. Indeed, it is already doing so, building artificial islands in waters far from its shores, menacing its neighbors’ exclusive economic zones, and squelching even the faintest hints of freedom in Hong Kong and across China. Nor is China war-weary. Beijing hasn’t fought a hot war in four decades. In fact, many in the Chinese Communist Party are believed to be hungry for conflict.
OPINION: THE US CAN’T DEFEND TAIWAN WITHOUT TAIWAN
China seeks to be the world’s sole superpower, and Beijing’s first course will be Taiwan. President Xi Jinping believes himself to be China’s man of destiny, building the new “Chinese century.” China’s massive nuclear buildup belies its intentions. Among other actions, China is building a nuclear-capable stealth bomber, capable of striking targets in North America without refueling. Chinese military planners are either preparing for war or clearly hope to present the U.S. with a fait accompli.
To forestall war, the U.S. must shore up deterrence. This will mean building and developing America’s nuclear arsenal — not depleting it. It will also require both a massive effort and a major rethink. But the status quo, it is clear, will not suffice.
The writer is a Washington, D.C.-based foreign affairs analyst. His views are his own.
