President Joe Biden on Thursday asked Congress to approve a $33 billion assistance package for Ukraine.
It would increase by eight times the support the Biden administration has given Kyiv since the war began in February. Nearly two-thirds of the $33 billion will take the form of military assistance. Kyiv can expect additional deliveries of artillery units, armored vehicles, air defense systems, and anti-armor weapons. The administration is also proposing changes to U.S. law that would not only make it easier to seize the assets of Russian oligarchs, but to liquidate those assets and use the profits to assist Ukraine.
The immediate effect of this aid will be a rearmed Ukrainian military. That matters because, despite its series of victories around Kyiv, Ukraine confronts a large-scale Russian offensive in the Donbas. This expanse of open land caters to the type of warfare Russia desired all along. In contrast, Russian forces were confused and outmatched in urban terrain, where their armor was destroyed by a mobile and adaptive Ukrainian resistance.
The United States and the rest of NATO are clearly in it for the long haul.
“We need to be prepared for the long term,” NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said Thursday, hours before Biden made his announcement. “There is absolutely the possibility that this war will drag on and last for months and years.” Given his aid request, Biden apparently agrees. The West’s policy on Ukraine now seems set in stone: For as long Russian military forces continue to pummel Ukrainian cities and seek to expand their control, the West will continue to ensure Kyiv can resist Russia. Will a longer war eventually result in a peace deal or a total Russian defeat?
Washington and its allies apparently think so. Wars tend to end in one of two ways: first, as a result of a military victory by one side over the other (think the Allies defeating Nazi Germany in 1945), or second, as the result of a peace deal that ends the war (think the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s that lasted for eight years). Notwithstanding U.S. statements about helping Ukraine win the war outright, it’s difficult to imagine Ukraine’s total defeat of the Russians. A negotiated resolution is the more likely option.
But we are a long way from reaching the point of serious talks. With the Russian offensive in the Donbas ramping up and Ukrainian formations digging in for what is sure to be an intense barrage of air, missile, and artillery strikes, Kyiv or Moscow aren’t in the right frame of mind to talk about peace terms. The talks themselves depend on the state of the battlefield. With the battlefield in flux, trying to conjure up terms for a peace settlement is fruitless.
Unfortunately, Ukraine, Russia, and the West thus now find themselves in a Catch-22. Peace talks will only occur after more fighting in the area. But the more fighting there is, the higher the risk of escalation. Indeed, just this week, Russia severed natural gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria, multiple depots inside Russia were damaged in explosions, and Transnistria, the breakaway pro-Russia territory in Moldova, saw destabilizing events.
Can the U.S. walk the tightrope of continuing to support Ukraine while simultaneously preventing the war from spiraling outside of Ukraine’s borders?
Daniel DePetris (@DanDePetris) is a contributor to the Washington Examiner’s Beltway Confidential blog. His opinions are his own.
