Failing to light a fire under the Pentagon and his National Security Council, President Joe Biden risks blowing a critical opportunity. Namely, an opportunity to ready Ukraine for a major Russian offensive in and beyond the country’s southeastern Donbas region.
Biden deserves credit for unifying much of the world in Ukraine’s support. He also deserves credit for approving, albeit belatedly on Wednesday, the supply of Ukraine with a new $800 million military package including helicopters, armored vehicles, and cannon artillery. Unfortunately, Biden has failed to get Ukraine anywhere the number of weapons it needs to fight Russia in what’s known as the “deep battlespace.” As I noted in late March, Ukraine needs longer-range drones, rocket artillery, and more lethal tactical combat drones.
The Biden administration’s excuses for why more diverse and numerous of these weapons are yet to be delivered do not pass muster. Nor do the administration’s claims that it is rushing weapons to the battlefield. When it comes to anti-tank Switchblade drones, for example, the administration had, until Wednesday, only provided 100 such systems to Ukraine. Now, at least 300 more systems will be sent. This isn’t a problem of stockpiles: The manufacturer told me that it has delivered hundreds of the weapons to the U.S. military. Even then, some of the 100 systems have not yet been delivered even though the pledge was made a month ago. If this is what portends U.S. logistics chains when it comes to a possible war with China, it’s game over.
But the problem is not logistics chains. Rather, it’s the Biden administration’s overdue caution and associated aversion to giving Ukraine too much lethal equipment. That’s almost certainly why the administration has sent cannon artillery rather than multiple launch rocket systems to Ukraine. Instead of worrying that Russian President Vladimir Putin will overreact, the administration should be worrying about deterring his imperial ambitions. This miscalculation risks Ukraine’s major battlefield losses.
Consider that Ukraine’s relative inability to hit Russian forces at range is allowing the Russians to mass for a Donbas offensive. Putin needs some kind of territorial victory in Ukraine. I suspect he will launch a major offensive to secure the Donbas region and seize the city of Dnipro. Russia appears to have already launched shaping operations against that city, destroying its airport with long-range rocket fire.
My annotated map below roughly shows Russian staging areas (red boxes), current front lines (red lines) and likely offensive routes along highways from the north, northeast, and east (purple arrows). Securing Dnipro (purple circle) would give Russia a defensible foothold on the Dnieper River with which to protect a contiguous land corridor from Crimea to Russia proper — this corridor is critical for Crimea’s water needs. Holding Dnipro would also extend Russia’s territorial control beyond the Donbas in physical and psychological threat to the rest of Ukraine. This would thus offer Putin at least a pretense of satisfaction for his very deep-seated need to dominate his southern neighbor.
Rogan, Donbas mapBiden must embrace the urgency of now. If Ukraine has the means to hit Russian forces at range, it will be able to take advantage of a key Russian weakness: the intersection of the Russian military’s weak lines of communication, depleted morale, and poor command and control. Striking Russian logistics trains at depth, Ukraine will be able to isolate and undermine those front-line Russian forces facing its own highly mobile anti-tank weapon units. The Russian war machine will fracture and once again find itself forced into a bloody retreat.
Biden has called Russia’s war a genocide. The president has the means to help Ukraine stop that genocide in favor of victory. He should do so.
Update: Shortly after this article was published, the Biden administration released details of the new $800 million aid package to Ukraine. The article has been updated to reflect that new information.
