Russian President Vladimir Putin used his Victory Day address on Monday to thread his war in Ukraine into the theme of a long-term struggle against the West.
A celebration of the Allies’ Second World War victory over the Third Reich, Victory Day evokes Russian patriotic zeal. Considering that more than 26 million Soviet citizens (including 11.4 million Soviet soldiers) were killed in that war, approaching 15% of the prewar Soviet population, Victory Day has an almost sacred significance in Russia. Addressing the Russian military directly, Putin declared, “You are fighting for the Motherland, for its future, so that no one forgets the lessons of the Second World War.”
It was the West toward which Putin targeted his ire, not so much Ukraine.
Putin framed the war against Ukraine as part of a tapestry of heroic Russian defensive wars. He charted a line between the 1812 defense against Napoleon, the great battles of the Second World War, and the fight over the Donbas today. Perhaps evincing his concern that the Russian military might not be able to secure beyond the Donbas area of eastern Ukraine, Putin singled out the “Donbas” six times. This consistent emphasis on the Donbas means that if and when Putin decides to suspend major military action, he can present that suspension as a reflection of an identifiable victory — as opposed to his far more ambitious original war aim of replacing the Ukrainian government with a puppet regime.
Putin did not, as I had expected, overtly threaten the West or call for industrial mobilization in support of the war effort. Still, the West took most of his fire.
Playing to his deep fury over the Soviet Union’s Cold War defeat, Putin railed, “The United States of America, especially after the collapse of the Soviet Union, started talking about its exclusivity, thereby humiliating not only the whole world but also its satellites, who have to pretend that they do not notice anything and meekly swallow it all.”
There’s a very deliberate implication behind Putin’s description of nations that “meekly swallow” U.S. policy decisions — namely, that they have prostituted their honor and sovereignty in order to become U.S. colonies. Having thus framed the enemy, Putin declared, “We are a different country. Russia has a different character. We will never give up love for the Motherland, faith and traditional values, the customs of our ancestors, respect for all peoples and cultures.” In contrast, the West has “decided to cancel” these “1000-year-old values,” thus signifying its “moral degradations.”
Putin’s intent is to frame the war in Ukraine as part of a much larger struggle — not simply of nations and power, but a great historic struggle with the moral significance of the Second World War. Putin is reinforcing the idea that the West has become a fiefdom of moral turpitude against which only a powerful, unified Russia under his dominion can stand. Putin’s language reflects a shift toward more hard-line thinking within the Kremlin, notably Nikolai Patrushev, Russia’s security council secretary. Patrushev recently attacked “beasts in human form” who have buried Ukraine under a cesspool of American moral excrement. Putin has always prioritized a Russian imperial renaissance, but his criticism of the West is becoming more overtly existential. The Russian Orthodox Church serves as a direct ally in this cause.
Putin’s speech signals that he anticipates a long-term deterioration in relations with the West. The influence of the Russian financial sector and the existing oligarch class (which favors some positive relations with the West and seems to be suffering a slow-rolling purge) appears to be evaporating. Indeed, Putin implicitly attacked those who oppose his Fortress Russia mentality when he warned of Western efforts to “sow national and religious enmity in order to weaken and split us from within.” Translation: Disagreement with me equals unpatriotic treason.
The Kremlin and its state media apparatus have invented new Western conspiracies in recent weeks, attempting to bolster the need for total unity.
Nevertheless, this need for unity belies the Kremlin’s deeper fears. While calls to historic sacrifices and values play well in Russia’s deeply patriotic and religious society, their long-term ability to mask declining living standards is questionable. As inflation continues to bite and foreign investment collapses, Russians may begin to ask whether this war and Putin’s leadership are really worth it.
