Once firmly in Russia’s orbit, former Soviet republics in Central Asia are reassessing their long-standing ties with the Kremlin. These withering partnerships create opportunities for the United States.
Thanks to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war on Ukraine, Russia’s sphere of influence in Central Asia is deflating faster than at any point since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Instead of enthusiastically backing Russia’s invasion, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan were rightly concerned about the collateral consequences of Moscow’s warmongering. Doing big business with Russia has always come at a big cost — especially for Central Asia. When Russia’s economy stumbled in 2014, countries such as Kazakhstan — whose currency lost 20% of its value in just 24 hours — were forced to pay the price. Cultivating strong economic ties with stable powers such as the U.S. would help address this vulnerability.
Today, any government that supports Putin’s war faces yet another great challenge — geopolitical isolation. While Russia might be powerful enough to withstand global exile, many of its smaller allies are not. This is especially true with the former Soviet states in Central Asia that are working to integrate into the international community better.
Ultimately, security concerns are the driving force behind Russia’s shrinking influence in the region. No one really trusts Putin — especially after the Kremlin publicly insisted, time and time again, that its military buildup on the Ukrainian border was a trivial training exercise. This shift in attitude toward Russia was evident at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Uzbekistan on Sept. 15, where Putin’s reception from Central Asian leaders was lukewarm at best. At the United Nations last week, Kazakhstan President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev publicly criticized the Russian government over Ukraine.
But escaping Russia’s geopolitical orbit isn’t just a win for post-Soviet Central Asia. It can also be a major strategic triumph for America. As of 2018, Kazakhstan, the largest of the five ex-Soviet republics, was the world’s ninth-largest exporter of crude oil and 12th-largest exporter of natural gas. In fact, the country is the largest oil producer in the region and is home to the 12th-highest proven crude oil reserve on the planet. Uzbekistan is yet another state with ample opportunity. As of 2020, the country was the eighth-largest producer of gold and the seventh-largest supplier of uranium in the world.
Miraziz Khidoyatov, a New York City-based Uzbek attorney and international business consultant, told the Washington Examiner that Tashkent is more open to U.S. investment than ever before. “Russia is no longer a reliable business partner in the eyes of many Uzbek investors,” Khidoyatov said in an interview. “The country is eager to diversify its economy and views the United States as its most stable alternative.”
Of course, new economic partnerships would naturally pave a path for broader security cooperation, which would also weaken Putin. However, the window to capitalize on these opportunities is closing fast. An expert in strategic economic development, China is aggressively courting Central Asia. During the SCO summit, Chinese President Xi Jinping outlined his plans for an ambitious railway project that would connect Central Asia to China, negotiated the construction of a gas pipeline from Turkmenistan, and struck several trade deals with Uzbekistan.
Putin’s obsession with Ukraine has backfired for Russia, creating a growing power vacuum in Central Asia. The U.S. must not squander this golden chance to punish Moscow for its grave miscalculation.
Nikita Vladimirov (@nikvofficial) is a political strategist and founder of Inside Geopolitics.
