North Korea parroted a Chinese talking point over the holiday weekend, accusing the United States of trying to create an “Asian NATO.” This follows a newly reached military cooperation agreement between the U.S., Japan, and South Korea.
The idea of a NATO-esque military alliance in East Asia worries China and its North Korean ally for a simple reason: Such a pact would severely hamstring China’s ability to invade Taiwan and wage war across its near periphery.
In the post-2000 era, the No. 2 strategic priority of the Chinese military has always been its ability to take Taiwan by force (No. 1 being the preservation of Communist Party rule). But in the event that China did invade Taiwan, President Joe Biden has strongly suggested the U.S. would respond militarily. If the U.S. did so, the war’s determining factor would likely rest on whether the U.S. could quickly concentrate combat power around Taiwan.
The problem is that China has amassed stockpiles of area-denial weapons systems, like its DF family of anti-ship ballistic missiles, to prevent an effective deployment of U.S. combat power. China’s top priority, now credibly possessed, is to limit U.S. carrier access to the East and South China Seas. And if the U.S. cannot fully leverage its carriers, the importance of American allies in the region becomes critical. The U.S. would have to rely on the island territory of Guam, the Philippines, South Korea, and Japan. But that might mean dragging allies into the conflict.
Facing China’s escalating threats, however, some of these allies are increasingly willing to step up. With South Korean and Japanese forces added to the military calculus and the use of air and naval bases in South Korea and Japan guaranteed, the security posture arrayed against China would become formidable. A multinational defense of Taiwan would force China to disaggregate its forces and contend with a stronger international sanctions regime. A multinational alliance would also attract the support of U.S. allies further afield, such as in Europe.
A military alliance in the region will be the most effective counter to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, making the costs of any prospective invasion so prohibitive as to see the invasion avoided entirely. It’s time for an Asian NATO.
Philip Reichert is a former U.S. Army intelligence analyst and contractor for the U.S. Space Force.
