Less than three weeks out from the midterm elections, the polls are moving in one direction. Even MSNBC’s Joe Scarborough “senses” the shift in voter sentiment.
Earlier this week, he spoke to NBC analyst Steve Kornacki, who compared the midterm elections to previous elections. He sees striking similarities to 2014 when a “slow and late-building wave to the point where, even on election night, the magnitude of it took some folks by surprise.” He pointed out that Republicans in 2014 won back the Senate and “reached their highest level in terms of House seats since 1928.”
As Democratic candidates try in vain to resurrect the fervor among pro-choice voters triggered by the Supreme Court’s reversal of Roe v. Wade, Kornacki confirmed the obvious: The economy, inflation, and crime are the most important issues.
Even widely followed, left-leaning data analyst Nate Silver has dialed back his expectations of a Democratic victory in the Senate from 71% a month ago to 61% on Wednesday. Much of this shift has come in the last two weeks, which is an indication that Republicans are gaining momentum.
Signs of a red wave abound. Although it’s premature to predict that Republican Rep. Lee Zeldin will pull off an upset victory against New York Gov. Kathy Hochul, he has managed to close the gap from 24 points to 4 in a newly released Quinnipiac poll. New York hasn’t elected a Republican governor in two decades, but it seems Zeldin’s singular focus on the state’s skyrocketing crime rate is resonating with voters.
A look at the RealClearPolitics list of House race changes since Oct. 1 provides another indication of the Republicans’ increasing strength. All 17 changes favor the GOP. Eight races changed from “Leans Dem” to “Toss Up,” three from “Likely Dem” to “Leans Dem,” two from “Safe Dem” to “Likely Dem,” three from “Toss Up” to “Leans GOP,” and one from “Leans GOP” to “Likely GOP.”
RealClearPolitics has made only four changes in Senate races since Oct. 1. Two favor the Democrats and two the Republicans. None of these changes affect the most closely watched seats that will determine party control of the Senate.
The Cook Political Report reported three changes. The Florida Senate race was moved from “Leans GOP” to “Likely GOP.” Washington Sen. Patty Murray’s race went from “Solid Dem” to “Likely Dem,” and in Iowa, Sen. Chuck Grassley’s seat shifted from “Solid GOP” to “Likely GOP.”
RealClearPolitics lists seven Senate races in its toss up column: Arizona (D +2.5), Georgia (D +2.4), New Hampshire (D +5.8), North Carolina (R +2.8), Nevada (R +1.2), Pennsylvania (D +3.2), and Wisconsin (R +2.8).
Republicans need to win four of these races to win the Senate. Wisconsin Sen. Ron Johnson, a Republican, is well known for outperforming his polls. Of the eight most recent polls, he has led in seven and tied in one. It is beyond me why this race remains in the toss-up column.
North Carolina Senate candidate Ted Budd, a Republican, has increased his lead over Democratic opponent Cheri Beasley. And in Nevada, Republican Adam Laxalt is now 1.2 points ahead of Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto. RealClearPolitics projects this seat as a pickup for the GOP. In a recent article, Nate Silver wrote that “Nevada could be Senate Republicans’ ace in the hole.” Republicans are extremely optimistic about this race.
Assuming Republicans prevail in these states, they still need a win in one of the following states: Arizona, Georgia, New Hampshire, or Pennsylvania.
Once considered a long-shot, GOP candidate Blake Masters is rapidly closing in on Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly. Masters has momentum. He recently dominated in a debate with Kelly by tying him to Biden’s disastrous policies. He hit Kelly especially hard on immigration, an issue Arizonans have become all too familiar.
New Hampshire remains a long-shot for Republicans. Georgia Republican Herschel Walker is trying to recover from allegations that he paid for his then-girlfriend’s abortion in 2009. And in Pennsylvania, Dr. Mehmet Oz has managed to shrink his gap with Democratic Lt. Gov. John Fetterman to 3.2 points in recent weeks.
Republicans remain optimistic that Kornacki’s “slow, late-building wave” will carry at least one of these four candidates over the finish line. Indeed, for the sake of the country, we better hope the wave appears.
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM RESTORING AMERICA
Elizabeth Stauffer is a contributor to the Washington Examiner and the Western Journal. Her articles have appeared at MSN, RedState, Newsmax, the Federalist, and RealClearPolitics. Follow her on Twitter or LinkedIn.
