The Biden administration’s request for an additional $33 billion from Congress for additional security, military, and humanitarian assistance for Ukraine was welcome news. It marked a U.S. policy shift from deterrence to seeing “Russia weakened.” British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has similarly announced an additional $375 million in military aid to Ukraine. This investment in Ukraine’s security is essential to its morale and survival, but is it enough?

Russian President Vladimir Putin may formally declare war on Ukraine as soon as May 9, “Victory Day” in Russia. This date commemorates the Nazi defeat in 1945. But a declaration of war would allow Putin to mobilize reserve forces and draft conscripts, which Russia needs amid a growing manpower shortage. Of the estimated 190,000 Russian soldiers that have participated in the invasion of Ukraine, approximately 25% have been killed or wounded.